Day 246: Even the Rose Garden

The world is at 35 million coronavirus cases, with #3 Brazil nearing 5 million. Japan (#45) is asymptotically approaching the China mark, while #46 Nepal and #47 Czechia chug along behind them. In the US, Missouri has taken the #18 spot from Massachusetts, and #20 Wisconsin is only a couple of days away from beating us as well.

The New York Times reports on the growing cluster of cases tentatively attributed to the Rose Garden ceremony for Amy Coney Barrett (or, more likely, the indoor reception that followed).

P.S. Massachusetts' cases were up half a percentage point today.

Day 245: Even the God Emperor

President Trump tweeted (of course) that he and the First Lady tested positive for COVID-19, following news that an aide, Hope Hicks, was infected. The meme-imperial couple are "well", which PlagueBlog takes to mean asymptomatic. Their quarantine schedule may affect the second debate. The Vice President and Second Lady have tested negative.

P.S. Massachusetts' cases are up four-sevenths of a percentage point again today. (That's 761 cases, keeping us just barely ahead of Missouri for another day.)

P.P.S. NBC has updates on the President's "low-grade fever" and trip to Walter Reed, as well as Melania's "mild cough and headache."

Day 244: Even the Neanderthals

An article in Nature claims that The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals. But not all post-Neanderthals have it; the particularly problematic genes seem to be more common in South Asians than in any other out-of-Africa group. (Africans rarely carry Neanderthal genes.)

MedPage Today reports that ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) wasn't as universal a failure for COVID patients as previously suspected. (It made ventilators look helpful.) It turns out that only about 40% of patients died in hospital afterwards. However, the follow-up on the allegedly surviving 60% wasn't really solid or long-term enough to be entirely convincing.

Forbes reports that Mississippi's mask mandate expired peacefully in its sleep last night.

Massachusetts' cases are up four-sevenths of a percentage point today. While the general grouping of our "red" cities (Lawrence, Framingham, Revere, New Bedford, and the Islands) hasn't changed much, things are getting a little more infected. (Also, maps from last week have been corrected due to PlagueBlogger error.)

(Pop out.)

Day 243: No One Here Cares

As the world hits 34 million cases, local puritans continue to be surprised at college students' disregard for a disease that poses little threat to them personally. In this case the culprits were unmasked Boston College football players failing to be somber and socially distant in a "tightly packed locker room" after beating Texas State 24–21 in a comeback victory. Since dirty football players are expected to go to locker rooms after games and no grandmas are known to have been killed by COVID-negative athletes, it's not clear what their offense was or what exactly they weren't caring enough about.

In other young immortal news, a 48-year-old senior non-comm in the Army Reserve died of coronavirus, making him only the eighth US service member COVID death. The military’s COVID death rate is around 0.015%, with only one active duty serviceman having died (the sailor from Germ Boat #23).

NPR has been reporting on life in the fake school trenches. You'd think we'd have a hard number, but NPR could only provide an estimate that about 50% of school districts went virtual this fall. NPR is ominous about parents "reaching a breaking point", with moms leaving the remote workforce after failing to both work and parent full-time at home, leaving their kids at home alone with a computer while they go out to work, or paying for daycare to supervise their children's fake school day. The latter is most notable for recreating all the risks of school for the children and their stand-in teachers, at extraordinary expense to their parents. As if all of that weren't bad enough, a second NPR article reports on the compound consequences of parental unemployment and childhood social isolation.

In cute and furry news, a New York company, Applied DNA Sciences, has responded to the crowded COVID vaccine market by creating a vaccine for cats. It's already in clinical trials "upstate". PlagueBlog admires their ingenuity, and also hopes that this doesn't turn into another Lyme disease situation where a vaccine is available for pets but not for humans.

P.S. Massachusetts' cases were up two-fifths of a percentage point again today. The cities and towns data is out and shows some activity on Nantucket and in the north around Lawrence. (Maps tomorrow.)

Day 242: Not Taking COVID Seriously

Despite the recent lockdown, Israel is reported to have the highest weekly infection rate in the world and a daily death rate higher than the US. Though this wasn't their first lockdown, their plan seems to be to continue with socialism lockdowns until it finally works.

Massachusetts cases were up two-fifths of a percentage point today. Missouri (#19) is on the rise and may pass #18 Massachusetts in another day or two. Another steady climber at more than 2,000 cases a day is #21 Wisconsin.

In local news, BU is working itself up to suspend 20 underage students for attending an outdoor "beer party", not because underage drinking is illegal (it is) or because they were anywhere near the limit on outdoor gatherings in Boston (they weren't), but because they "won’t take COVID-19 seriously." (PlagueBlog would not be here blogging today if, back in the day, we'd gotten tossed out of institutions of higher education for taking beer more seriously than AIDS.)

Day 241: One Million Deaths

The news has settled on today as the day to declare a million coronavirus deaths worldwide. COVID-19 now rivals the largely forgotten Hong Kong flu in fatality, and has only 99 million deaths to go to equal the Spanish flu. (Some put the death toll of the Spanish flu at only 50 million, but 'tis the season to put the worst possible spin on everything.)

Florida let 'er rip on Friday and people are still complaining about the bars being packed there since reopening. Dr. Fauci is very concerned.

Massachusetts' cases are up a third of a percentage point today.

Day 240: Madrid Rebels

BNO News has declared a million coronavirus deaths worldwide, while (at the time of writing) Worldometers remains a few hundred deaths short of that milestone. But #2 India has reached six million cases.

Spain (at #7) is having a flare-up in Madrid, with more than double the country-wide average cases per fortnight (and more than seven times the average in the UK). The national health minister called for Madrid to lock down, but the regional government has refused to do so, apparently out of economic concerns. While much of the increase can be attributed to better testing and the death rate is down, ICU capacity in Madrid remains a concern.

In local news, Nantucket's COVID wave continues. Tourists are part of the problem, though some of the new cases are among locals and haven't been traced yet.

P.S. Massachusetts' cases are up four ninths of a percentage point again today.

Day 239: More Vitamin D

The world has reached 33 million coronavirus cases, and is very close to one million deaths (prompting the WHO to prognosticate the next million deaths). India is about to reach 6 million cases, though their death rate is minuscule with not even 95,000 deaths so far. Now #43, Poland has crossed the China line.

The well-known benefits of Vitamin D continue to appear in studies, including this PLOS ONE article that concluded:

The association between lower SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates and higher circulating 25(OH)D levels remained significant in a multivariable logistic model adjusting for all included demographic factors (adjusted odds ratio 0.984 per ng/mL increment, 95% C.I. 0.983–0.986; p<0.001). SARS-CoV-2 positivity is strongly and inversely associated with circulating 25(OH)D levels, a relationship that persists across latitudes, races/ethnicities, both sexes, and age ranges. Our findings provide impetus to explore the role of vitamin D supplementation in reducing the risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease.

Unfortunately, impetus is far from proof of the efficacy of vitamin D supplementation, though this study did go pretty far in separating out vitamin D levels from other confounding factors.

Fortunately, a previous study (dated next month but previously PlagueBlogged) already showed the efficacy of administration of vitamin D in treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Massachusetts' cases are up four ninths of a percentage point today.

Day 238: Wantonly or Recklessly

On the international COVID scene, the news puts Spain at 700,000 cases after a week of about 10,000 cases a day (fueled by improved testing). Worldometers already has them at 735,000 cases (and at #7); #11 France is also experiencing record case counts, bringing them close to 500,000 cases total. Hospitalization and death rates there are also three to four times higher now than in August. Lower down on the list, #44 Poland is rapidly approaching the China mark.

In domestic news, Virginia Governor Dr. Ralph Northam and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus. He claims to be asymptomatic; they may have caught it from the hired help at the Executive Mansion.

In Michigan, 500,000 residents are petitioning to revoke the open-ended Emergency Powers of Governor Act, one of two Michigan laws permitting the Governor to declare a state of emergency. If they succeed (either by the legislature voting in favor of it or, failing that, by ballot initiative), the remaining law will require that a state of emergency be renewed by the legislature on a monthly basis. It seems the Republican legislature is expected to approve the petition, but it may take up to 100 days for the government to certify at least 340,047 of the signatures.

The New York Times reports the Massachusetts grand jury indictment of superintendent Bennett Walsh and medical director Dr. David Clinton, formerly of the Holyoke Soldiers' Home.

Each man was indicted on five counts for two charges; the specific charges were for caretakers who “wantonly or recklessly” permit or cause bodily injury and abuse, neglect or mistreatment of an older or disabled person.

P.S. Massachusetts' cases were up three sevenths of a percentage point again today.

Day 237: Variolation

In world news, the recent Israeli lockdown is getting tighter after the first week of lockdown produced 7,000 cases a day and stressed hospital capacity. Unemployment there is currently at 11%.

The Guardian reports a "nearly 100% accuracy" rate for COVID sniffer dogs in Helsinki, and it's also cheaper and easier than laboratory testing. The exact mechanism is unknown, but a prior study suggests the sweat of the infected smells different.

Here at PlagueBlog Headquarters, we've been intentionally ignoring the variolation story for a couple of weeks now as too silly to report, but it made ProMED earlier this week so here goes nothing: A "perspective" in the New England Journal of Medicine compares "universal facial masking" to variolation. While it's interesting as an admission that dose matters, as well as an implied admission that SARS-CoV-2 is getting through your face masks, it's less interesting in its examples of masking successes in crowded, germy settings like hospitals and ships. In reality, any of the host of COVID precautions can reduce viral loads, and the degree of reduction is poorly understood for novel approaches like universal mask usage or lockdowns. PlagueBlog is duly impressed that 2020, the year that keeps on giving, has managed to produce a vaccination technique that's even less reliable than the 15th-century institution of variolation.

Massachusetts' cases were up three sevenths of a percentage point today. Yesterday's cities and towns data shows the usual pattern of small town outliers, tourism COVID, and above-average case rates in some of the larger cities, though not in all of the Stop The Spread cities (the ones with dotted outlines):

(Pop out.)

Day 236: Think of the Children

The world has reached 32 million cases. Massachusetts' cases were up two fifths of a percentage point today. Despite no appreciable change in our coronavirus status in the past two months, the governor of Maine has finally relented and will now allow Massachusetts residents to visit without a COVID-19 test. The governor has provided no sane reason for the change, though there seem to be some hallucinatory reasons:

Maine health officials said Massachusetts now resembles other exempt states like Connecticut, New York and New Jersey in terms of COVID-19 prevalence and positivity rate.

PlagueBlog is unsure how that can represent a change, unless the tri-state areas numbers have recently been getting worse.

Nature reports on a rise in stillbirth rates in some countries (none of which are the US) and attributes it entirely to COVID panic interfering with routine prenatal care. Note that the CDC has yet to report any overall change in the stillbirth rate in the US, though they have reported, inconclusively, again, about the risks of COVID-19 infection in pregnant women.

A report out of Sweden found little difference in pregnancy outcome between COVID-19 patients and uninfected patients in labor. There was slightly more pre-eclampsia among the infected and a bit more induction among the uninfected, but otherwise the deliveries and infants were similar or the same. They also noted that 65% of infected mothers were asymptomatic.

Day 235: Still Not Dining In

PlagueBlog apologizes for the COVID fatigue that ate days 231–234. In the meantime, the world has reached 31.5 million cases, with the US (still #1) at 7 million cases, #2 India at 5.5 million cases, and #3 Brazil at 4.5 million cases. The United Arab Emirates (#41) and Guatemala (#42) have surpassed the ever-dropping China point (#43). In the US, Michigan has reached 130,000 cases, pushing us (that is, Massachusetts) down to #18.

Indoor dining has still not come to New York City, although it is currently scheduled to return on September 30th at 25% capacity. According to the New York Post, that's not enough to replace the outdoor dining capacity that's quickly going the way of summer weather. They note that 87% of bars and restaurants in the city were already unable to make their August rent, and a third of those made no payment at all. An estimated 150,000 hospitality industry workers are still out of work, although COVID-19 rates remain below 1% across the state. This story made Hacker News, where it was compared to the Onion article Study Finds Most Restaurants Fail Within First Year Of It Becoming Illegal To Go To Them.

The LA Times warns of a coming "tsunami" of hotel closures:

Nationwide, it’s not clear how many hotels are behind on their loan payments. But figures are available on hotel loans that have been bundled and sold to investors as commercial mortgage-backed securities. Payments on 16.77% of those loans are more than 30 days late, according to Fitch Ratings — up dramatically from less than 2% before the industry began feeling the pandemic’s financial effects.

P.S. Massachusetts' cases were up a seventh of a percentage point today. They were up a third of a point on Friday, nearly half a point on Saturday, two sevenths of a point on Sunday, and a fifth of a percentage point on Monday.

Also, PlagueBlog feels the need to warn Cambridge residents and their neighbors that the Cantabrigian pointless outdoor mask requirement comes back into effect at midnight tonight (although "midnight on September 22, 2020" is embarrassingly imprecise, even by COVID panic standards).

Day 230: Should Fido Wear a Mask?

The Netherlands have jumped a couple of places past China (now #41) over the course of the week. Next up to surpass China are Guatemala and the United Arab Emirates. Michigan also surpassed Massachusetts this week, pushing us down to #18 in the US. Next up is Maryland, though Missouri and Wisconsin are moving faster at the moment.

Today's title question is an apparently serious one from Reader's Digest: Should Your Dog Be Wearing a Pet Mask? The answer, of course, is no. Dogs need to pant as well as breathe, and some of them have been bred to be dangerously bad at the latter even without a mask. Of course no one asks whether your cat should wear a mask because clearly your cat will refuse.

On the science front, not only does smoking protect you from COVID-19, but wearing glasses does as well, at least according to this report in JAMA Ophthalmology.

Massachusetts' cases are up a third of a percentage point today. Here's the graph of the cities and towns data from Wednesday; things are still happening in Williamstown and on the islands, as well as in Worcester, Lawrence, Revere, and New Bedford:

(Pop out.)

Day 229: No Comment

Massachusetts' cases were up a quarter of a percentage point again today.

Day 228: Can the Neighbors Tell?

The US has reached 200,000 dead. Michigan is creeping up to Massachusetts in case count. Massachusetts' cases are up a quarter of a percentage point today, along with more grousing from the neighbors about Boston College's coronavirus outbreak.

Forbes reports on the partly-rolled-out Sara tracking project from Mitre.

Day 227: No Lifeline

Israel will be locking down again for three weeks starting Friday. The timing (for the high holidays) is both unfortunate and precautionary.

The Atlantic reports on the poor performance of Tenet in the US and what it means (DOOM!) for movie theaters in general:

If things were already looking bleak for American cinemas, the immediate future now looks catastrophic. This past weekend, the total domestic box office was less than $15 million—Indiewire estimates that sum amounts to $5,000 per theater, which isn’t enough to pay for basic operating costs. As studios grow more skittish about releasing major films, those numbers will only dwindle. Tenet was supposed to be the industry’s lifeline; for now, Hollywood has nothing else to pin its hopes on.

Here in Massachusetts, cases were up a fifth of a percentage point.

Day 226, Otherwise Known As 1600000000

The world has reached 29 million cases. The Unix Epoch has reached 1600000000. The Australian government is under fire for a double standard that keeps the average person from attending their parents' funerals but lets Tom Hanks tramp into the country unimpeded.

Commentary in BMJ Global Health speculates that ADE (antibody-dependent enhancement) contributed to the severity of cases in Italy. It's fairly speculative, with no evidence that ADE is increasing the disease burden, and no way to distinguish between that case and one that would look the same such as previous immunity to other coronaviruses reducing the disease burden elsewhere. PlagueBlog would have thought we were beyond such basic speculation at this point, but apparently we are not.

An interesting paper in Science uses the genetics of SARS-CoV-2 to investigate flaws in the early pandemic response in the US and Europe:

Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus into Germany and the US from taking hold. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and to Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established.

There's also a University of Arizona press release about the paper.

Massachusetts' cases are up two ninths of a percentage point today.

Day 225: Even the Peeps

Another day, another criticism of the Sturgis study. Or two.

Halloween peeps have been "paused" (as the kids say) for this year due to coronavirus, so that Just Born, the peep company, can focus on their Easter and year-round candy lines. Halloween peeps are scheduled to return next fall.

The Boston College outbreak has grown to 81 students, with lots of complaints about poor planning and communication of the school's COVID response. Overall, Massachusetts' cases are up four ninths of a percentage point today.

In non-COVID news, the City of Somerville has tweeted a case of West Nile virus.

Day 224: 9/11

Aside from the obvious analogy of a misdirected overreaction (in the wars on terror and coronavirus), 9/11 and COVID also share flight from Manhattan and an economic threat to the World Trade Center.

On the science front, the Lancet questions improbable fomite research, while others question the Lancet paper about Sputnik V:

“There are very strange patterns in the data,” Enrico Bucci, a biology professor at Temple University in the U.S. who has published an open letter highlighting the concerns told The Moscow Times.

“By strange patterns I mean there are duplicate values for different [groups of] patients … which cannot be,” Bucci said, in reference to results concerning the production of antibodies by groups of patients who had been tested with different formulations of the vaccine.

The cities and towns data for this week has a few tiny town outliers (most notably Montgomery), but also some activity in the bigger cities, in Williamstown (where Williams College is mostly in session, albeit with a reduced course load and activities), and on the Cape and islands:

(Pop out.)

P.S. Massachusetts' cases were up a third of a percentage point again today.

Day 223: Danger of Suffocation

In #6 Columbia, police killed an unmasked lawyer using a stun gun, leading to riots that killed seven more innocent civilians. In #26 Canada, a flight was grounded when a 19-month-old child refused to put on his mask. According to the airline, it was the three-year-old who refused to wear a mask, but the parents maintain the three-year-old was under the mask, and only the 19-month-old refused. (Children under 2 are not required to wear masks in Canada, due to the danger of suffocation.) The hostile toddlers were removed from the plane, but the flight crew apparently refused to fly after the commotion.

Snopes takes on the question of the alleged 260,000 COVID cases from the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, but doesn't fully debunk it.

In local news, 13 Boston College swimmers have tested positive for COVID-19. The affected teams are, as the kids say nowadays, "paused." Massachusetts' cases are up a third of a percentage point today.