Day 712: Immortal Time Datacrime

The bad cat explains the immortal time fallacy using saline (and calls it datacrime). But the transient immune depression from the jab make the numbers even worse:

those who get a booster are, for at least 14 days, MUCH more likely to get sick. this is high hit probability fire to run across. the risk, in the middle of an omicron surge, is very high to begin with. this is not a time you want to be immuno-suppressed.

and if they do get sick, likely because they got the booster, they are not counted as a booster illness. they get counted as a “double vaxxed.”

[...]

clearly, boosted is the highest risk group in our example.

but it will read as the lowest.

[...]

this definitional deception has literally taken a product that increased risk by 47% and made it look like 58% VE. note that this is UP from the 48% it reported as saline. yup, swapping in a product that does actual harm will, under these measurement modalities, read as HIGHER vaccine efficacy than saline. this calculation mistakes harm for benefit.

Note that while these infection numbers don't dispel claims that the vaccines reduce severity, bad cat has his paws on some numbers that do imply it's original antigenic sin all the way down.

P.S. Massachusetts cases were up one and seven-ninths of a percent today, which was more than the Tuesday lull but less than last week's highs.