Using data from the Virology laboratory at the Manchester Medical Microbiology Partnership (MMMP, a partnership between UKHSA and the Manchester Foundation Trust), we have extracted a real-time feed of Omicron samples from hospitals across Greater Manchester, an area of the United Kingdom with a population size of approximately three million individuals. Omicron hospital samples are growing exponentially across Greater Manchester (doubling time 2.7 days (95% CI: 2.1, 3.7)). The proportion of Omicron in hospital samples follows a similar trajectory to the SGTF [S-gene target failure, an Omicron trait] proportion in cases, but with a two-day offset. This is consistent with the delay from testing positive to hospital admission, implying a similar proportion of Omicron cases are converting to hospital admissions as for Delta cases. Comparing the Greater Manchester data to national hospitalisation data, similar tends are observed. Therefore, there is no signal of a substantial reduction in hospital admission risk with Omicron, and Omicron epidemics are likely to place a substantial burden on public health infrastructure.While this wasn't the pattern from South Africa, vaccination rates were low there while they are high in Britain. Considering the negative efficacy of the vaccines and the media's inflated idea of the severity of "average" COVID cases, it seems entirely possible that Omicron could end up just as much of a problem as any previous variant of COVID ever was—which is to say, flu-like. Bad flu seasons have overwhelmed JIT healthcare systems in the past.
So it's not necessarily the mildness of Omicron that's led to the backpedalling of COVID craziness you may have observed lately; its pervasiveness alone is enough to blow all the bad statistics of the pandemic out of the water. Once anybody can do the math of vaccine and mask (in)efficacy on their fingers, the cat is outta the bag.
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