Mathew Crawford evaluates some Pfizer vaccine safety documentation released on the FDA's 55-year plan to respond to a FOIA lawsuit. He mistook it for a leak, but later provided a link to the released document.
Mortality Envelope Math
There appear to be 20,000 or so cases of SAEs in the report, and in the initial Pfizer trial, 0.7% of those injected suffered one or more SAEs. I suspect this percentage is low given the extremely healthy nature of the participants in the initial Pfizer trial (based on all-case mortality rates and cardiac events in both arms), but it will do for some basic envelope math.
20,000 is 0.7% of 2,850,000 [injected individuals], give or take, so I take that as the population reach of this particular report. The 1223 fatalities represents 430 deaths per million individuals injected, which falls very near numbers that I have computed several times over[.]
Also of interest today is the sequence for Omicron and its distance from the rest of the Greek alphabet of variants.
Science Magazine reports:
Omicron clearly did not develop out of one of the earlier variants of concern, such as Alpha or Delta. Instead, it appears to have evolved in parallel—and in the dark. Omicron is so different from the millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes that have been shared publicly that pinpointing its closest relative is difficult, says Emma Hodcroft, a virologist at the University of Bern. It likely diverged early from other strains, she says. “I would say it goes back to mid-2020.”
That raises the question of where Omicron’s predecessors lurked for more than a year. Scientists see essentially three possible explanations: The virus could have circulated and evolved in a population with little surveillance and sequencing. It could have gestated in a chronically infected COVID-19 patient. Or it might have evolved in a nonhuman species, from which it recently spilled back into people.
P.S. Massachusetts cases were up three fifths of a percentage point today.
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