Day 203: Fire Itself

CNN reports four deaths so far from wildfires in California, and implies (but never actually says) that some people may not be evacuating due to fear of coronavirus. One person refused to go inside a shelter over COVID and is sleeping in her car instead. One might hope that actual raging fires would put a damper on irrational reactions to coronavirus, but USA Today reports the gory details of the Red Cross shifting shelters, serving pre-packaged meals, and refusing donations over COVID concerns in California, as well as reporting an unspecified number of people sleeping in their cars instead of the shelters.

Franklin Templeton published some July survey data from Dynata (with a broken reference to the source) about just how far off the average American's opinion of coronavirus risk by age is from our actual risk by age:

Six months into this pandemic, Americans still dramatically misunderstand the risk of dying from COVID-19:

1. On average, Americans believe that people aged 55 and older account for just over half of total COVID-19 deaths; the actual figure is 92%.
2. Americans believe that people aged 44 and younger account for about 30% of total deaths; the actual figure is 2.7%.
3. Americans overestimate the risk of death from COVID-19 for people aged 24 and younger
by a factor of 50; and they think the risk for people aged 65 and older is half of what it actually is (40% vs 80%).

These results are nothing short of stunning. Mortality data have shown from the very beginning that the COVID-19 virus age-discriminates, with deaths overwhelmingly concentrated in people who are older and suffer comorbidities. This is perhaps the only uncontroversial piece of evidence we have about this virus. Nearly all US fatalities have been among people older than 55; and yet a large number of Americans are still convinced that the risk to those younger than 55 is almost the same as to those who are older.

P.S. Massachusetts' cases are up two-fifths of a percentage point today.