Day 176: Overreaction

The world is now well past 16 million cases. In a surprise move, Kazakhstan shot past both Ecuador and Sweden to take the #27 spot after China. In another surprise move, Kim Jong-un overreacted over an allegedly-infected escapee returning from South Korea by declaring a state of emergency and locking down Kaesong.

With a rare measure of paranoia for Brazil, Rio de Janeiro has already cancelled 2021 their traditional New Year's celebrations. They've not yet cancelled Carnaval, but São Paulo has "indefinitely postponed" it.

A story out of Portugal about an asymptomatic mother who miscarried at 8 months has spooked the innumerate, only partly because they can't read the rest of the article. It goes to some effort to say how rare any sort of transmission to the fetus or symptoms in pregnant mothers have been, not only in Portugal but worldwide. There are plenty of rumors of an increase in stillbirths during the pandemic, but little science to back them up—at least, not qua coronavirus deaths.

Where an uptick has been found, e.g., in London, it's not at all clear that the deaths have anything to do with cryptic COVID-19 infection—especially in that study, where the mothers were all non-positive and the placentas were examined for signs of infection without result. The alternative explanation seems far more likely, especially in Britain where pregnancies aren't as heavily monitored as in the US to begin with:

Alternatively, the increase in stillbirths may have resulted from indirect effects such as reluctance to attend hospital when needed (eg, with reduced fetal movements), fear of contracting infection, or not wanting to add to the National Health Service burden. Changes in obstetric services may have played a role secondary to staff shortages or reduced antenatal visits, ultrasound scans, and/or screening.

Massachusetts cases are up a quarter of a percentage point today.