In an overnight leap, worldwide coronavirus cases have passed 200,000 and reached somewhere between 203,529 (JHU CSSE) and 204,831 (WoM). Italy is over 31,000 cases with over 2,500 deaths. Iran also leapt up overnight to over 17,000 cases and over 1,100 deaths.
Also on the wrong side of South Korea are Spain (at almost 14,000 cases and over 600 dead) and Germany (over 10,000 cases but only 27 dead). Portugal (642 cases, 2 deaths) stopped trains and flights to Spain Monday night at 23:00, for at least a month.
The US is still on the right side of South Korea (though not for long) at about 7,300 cases and 116 deaths. New York has not been doing as well as Massachusetts; WoM reports 2,480 cases and 16 deaths for them. In fact, New Jersey has pushed Massachusetts into 5th place, and Florida is looking likely to overtake us soon as well. We are the only state with more than 100 cases but no deaths (out of 12).
New Hampshire is up 9 cases to 26. In Maine (32), Reddit reports that the L.L.Bean flagship store in Freeport is installing locks in preparation to lock its doors for the first time since it opened. Apparently they did close on some occasions; like Massachusetts and RI, Maine law requires retail stores to close on Thanksgiving. (PlagueBlog thinks the rest of you are animals.)
P.S. The Massachusetts numbers are out in their PDF hidey-hole. We have 38 new cases, -5 attributed to Biogen (so it's hard to say exactly where those five presumably misclassified folks went), 5 to community spread, 2 to travel, and 36 under investigation. The Commonwealth tested 377 new cases, 28 of whom were positive. The commercial labs tested 144 new cases, 10 of whom were positive. Their overall rates are now 13% and 4% respectively.
The Boston Globe reports that a swab shortage is now interfering with coronavirus testing. PlagueBlog hopes you got tested back when PlagueBlog recommended it.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
Day 46: The Swiftness of Wind
Through the sneaky approach of guessing the URL, PlagueBlog brings you the Massachusetts numbers for St. Patrick's Day before 4:30pm today. We have 21 new cases, for a total of 218: 2 new Biogen cases, 6 new travel cases, 5 new local transmission cases, and 8 new mysteries. Quest has reported 5 new positives, while LabCorp has 116 new negatives and no new positives.
I've been noticing the difference between the state lab positive rate (17% yesterday, 14% today) and the commercial lab one (4% yesterday, 3% today). The LabCorp rate is particularly low at 0.6%. Unfortunately, without a breakdown of where the commercial tests are being done, it's difficult to speculate about why the commercial lab rates are quite so different from each other. The state lab's high rates clearly have to do with its restrictive testing requirements, especially before they were eased up last week.
Elsewhere on the continent, Brazil announced its first death, of a 62-year-old São Paulo man who also had hypertension, diabetes, and an irrelevant prostate condition which O Globo felt the need to explain. His travel history was not provided.
P.S. The South China Morning Post reports that the coronavirus-positive Pomeranian died Monday, after having never shown symptoms, testing negative, and being released from quarantine to return home Saturday. The late Pomeranian first tested positive nineteen days ago (on Day 27 of the Boston count).
The owner has refused an autopsy; not surprisingly, the government that destroyed previous research into the disease seems to also be allowing this vital dog data to be lost. PlagueBlog notes that human beings have also died after testing negative.
P.P.S. West Virginia has joined the club.
I've been noticing the difference between the state lab positive rate (17% yesterday, 14% today) and the commercial lab one (4% yesterday, 3% today). The LabCorp rate is particularly low at 0.6%. Unfortunately, without a breakdown of where the commercial tests are being done, it's difficult to speculate about why the commercial lab rates are quite so different from each other. The state lab's high rates clearly have to do with its restrictive testing requirements, especially before they were eased up last week.
Elsewhere on the continent, Brazil announced its first death, of a 62-year-old São Paulo man who also had hypertension, diabetes, and an irrelevant prostate condition which O Globo felt the need to explain. His travel history was not provided.
P.S. The South China Morning Post reports that the coronavirus-positive Pomeranian died Monday, after having never shown symptoms, testing negative, and being released from quarantine to return home Saturday. The late Pomeranian first tested positive nineteen days ago (on Day 27 of the Boston count).
The owner has refused an autopsy; not surprisingly, the government that destroyed previous research into the disease seems to also be allowing this vital dog data to be lost. PlagueBlog notes that human beings have also died after testing negative.
P.P.S. West Virginia has joined the club.
Monday, March 16, 2020
Day 45: Last Diner Before Summer
The Governor's crackdown on eating out begins tomorrow, so tonight is your last chance. Other states besides Massachusetts following Hoboken's lead include Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, California, Ohio, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan (on very short notice), and 5 counties in Pennsylvania. Also the cities of Los Angeles, Washington DC, and Harris County, TX (i.e., Houston). Abroad, countries like Poland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Albania, Israel, and Czechia have closed restaurants.
Open Table reports things were looking pretty depressed for the industry already. PlagueBlog assumes the Open Table reservation numbers understate the situation, because you know you don't need a reservation these days.
The Boston Globe reports that unfortunate Worcester man who died on his way home Saturday has (posthumously) tested negative for COVID-19. The numbers for Massachusetts today are 197 total (+33 over yesterday), of which 100 have been connected to Biogen, 18 are travel-related, 28 are officially due to local transmission (apparently including the previous Western Mass cluster), and 51 are still under investigation. Of the positive tests, 8 are being excluded from further tabulation for being pre-March tests conducted by the CDC, 1 was done by LabCorp, 7 by Quest, and the remaining 181 were performed by the DPH.
Open Table reports things were looking pretty depressed for the industry already. PlagueBlog assumes the Open Table reservation numbers understate the situation, because you know you don't need a reservation these days.
The Boston Globe reports that unfortunate Worcester man who died on his way home Saturday has (posthumously) tested negative for COVID-19. The numbers for Massachusetts today are 197 total (+33 over yesterday), of which 100 have been connected to Biogen, 18 are travel-related, 28 are officially due to local transmission (apparently including the previous Western Mass cluster), and 51 are still under investigation. Of the positive tests, 8 are being excluded from further tabulation for being pre-March tests conducted by the CDC, 1 was done by LabCorp, 7 by Quest, and the remaining 181 were performed by the DPH.
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Day 44: Dubaious Death
The National reports that a 59-year-old Worcester man returning home to Logan from Chennai via Dubai died of cardiac arrest en route. The state police here are awaiting the autopsy and coronavirus test results—as are the 321 other passengers and 18 crew aboard the Boeing 777, especially the crew members who attempted CPR. The man had no pre-existing conditions but had been ill with gastrointestinal issues for an unspecified number of days before his flight. (Unlike "cold symptoms", gastrointestinal symptoms are an early sign of coronavirus infection.)
Here on the ground, the Commonwealth reported 164 cases total as of today, 108 traced to Biogen, 35 not yet traced to Biogen, 8 new travel-related cases, and no change in the Western Mass. cluster. PlagueBlog has heard that it's not clear to outsiders from the news that the Greater Boston area has pretty much shut down, with most school systems closed and many bars and restaurants now voluntarily closing. The mayor of Boston has also declared a health emergency, though it's not clear that means much at this point.
Rhode Island reached 20 cases yesterday, with no new cases today. Two recent cases are particularly notable, though: the Providence Journal reports that two children (age not specified) are among the cases. One had been on a cruise, and the other had gotten a signature from one of the two infected Utah Jazz players at their game in Boston on March 6th.
New Hampshire is up to 13 cases. The seventh case, a Rockland County woman, apparently worked at the Manchester DMV. If you visited the DMV in early March, you may want to read more about the case.
The New York Times reports that, due in part to union pressure, even the New York City school system will be closing starting Monday, until at least April 20th. The school system has 24 hours to figure out how to provide meals and childcare to some of the displaced students; remote education is to be planned out later this week. Public schools on Long Island and in Westchester County will also close.
NYC has now had five deaths, all involving pre-existing conditions, and the state has over 700 cases. The New York presidential primary may be delayed from late April until the date of a local election in late June. Louisiana and Georgia have also delayed their primaries.
Because, understandably, people just keep on drinking, the city of Hoboken (NJ) has closed all bars and restricted all restaurants to take-out only service, as well as implementing a 10pm curfew. The mayor excused all this in part with a confusing story about lack of EMS response to a bar fight on Saturday night.
Across the US there are 3,621 cases with 63 deaths, still mostly in Washington State and California. Italy is approaching 25,000 cases and Iran 14,000. Rumors about the UK "herd immunity" plan are greatly exaggerated. Hopefully the rumored vaccine from Israel (193 cases) is slightly less exaggerated. Austria, at 800 cases, has banned all gatherings of more than 5 persons.
P.S. The Governor of Massachusetts held a rare Sunday night presser to announce that our gatherings are now restricted to 25 people (down from 250), our restaurants are restricted to delivery and take-out only, and all schools, public and private, are closed for three weeks starting Tuesday. He closed some number of government offices, and the RMV (our DMV) is offering some extensions.
Visits to nursing homes are no longer allowed, hospital visitors must be screened, and non-essential procedures will be cancelled starting Wednesday. All commercial insurers are required to cover telehealth now, for free in the case of COVID-19, and some pharmacists will be allowed to make hand-sanitizer. (I suppose you used to have to be a compounding pharmacy to do so.)
The presser also claimed community spread in seven counties, even though we only have six counties with more than one case documented by the MDPH. It seems they've been peeking at the commercial lab results (seven of these have been positive already) and have decided some other cases won't be traced. Still, I think they may be exaggerating a bit to get people to hunker down before it's too Washington State.
He also mentioned the postponement of the Boston Marathon until September, news I'd missed earlier in the week. The Boston Globe article mentions that the MBTA will be running in full force Monday, but public transit service is likely to get reduced as soon as they come up with a plan to do so.
Here on the ground, the Commonwealth reported 164 cases total as of today, 108 traced to Biogen, 35 not yet traced to Biogen, 8 new travel-related cases, and no change in the Western Mass. cluster. PlagueBlog has heard that it's not clear to outsiders from the news that the Greater Boston area has pretty much shut down, with most school systems closed and many bars and restaurants now voluntarily closing. The mayor of Boston has also declared a health emergency, though it's not clear that means much at this point.
Rhode Island reached 20 cases yesterday, with no new cases today. Two recent cases are particularly notable, though: the Providence Journal reports that two children (age not specified) are among the cases. One had been on a cruise, and the other had gotten a signature from one of the two infected Utah Jazz players at their game in Boston on March 6th.
New Hampshire is up to 13 cases. The seventh case, a Rockland County woman, apparently worked at the Manchester DMV. If you visited the DMV in early March, you may want to read more about the case.
The New York Times reports that, due in part to union pressure, even the New York City school system will be closing starting Monday, until at least April 20th. The school system has 24 hours to figure out how to provide meals and childcare to some of the displaced students; remote education is to be planned out later this week. Public schools on Long Island and in Westchester County will also close.
NYC has now had five deaths, all involving pre-existing conditions, and the state has over 700 cases. The New York presidential primary may be delayed from late April until the date of a local election in late June. Louisiana and Georgia have also delayed their primaries.
Because, understandably, people just keep on drinking, the city of Hoboken (NJ) has closed all bars and restricted all restaurants to take-out only service, as well as implementing a 10pm curfew. The mayor excused all this in part with a confusing story about lack of EMS response to a bar fight on Saturday night.
Across the US there are 3,621 cases with 63 deaths, still mostly in Washington State and California. Italy is approaching 25,000 cases and Iran 14,000. Rumors about the UK "herd immunity" plan are greatly exaggerated. Hopefully the rumored vaccine from Israel (193 cases) is slightly less exaggerated. Austria, at 800 cases, has banned all gatherings of more than 5 persons.
P.S. The Governor of Massachusetts held a rare Sunday night presser to announce that our gatherings are now restricted to 25 people (down from 250), our restaurants are restricted to delivery and take-out only, and all schools, public and private, are closed for three weeks starting Tuesday. He closed some number of government offices, and the RMV (our DMV) is offering some extensions.
Visits to nursing homes are no longer allowed, hospital visitors must be screened, and non-essential procedures will be cancelled starting Wednesday. All commercial insurers are required to cover telehealth now, for free in the case of COVID-19, and some pharmacists will be allowed to make hand-sanitizer. (I suppose you used to have to be a compounding pharmacy to do so.)
The presser also claimed community spread in seven counties, even though we only have six counties with more than one case documented by the MDPH. It seems they've been peeking at the commercial lab results (seven of these have been positive already) and have decided some other cases won't be traced. Still, I think they may be exaggerating a bit to get people to hunker down before it's too Washington State.
He also mentioned the postponement of the Boston Marathon until September, news I'd missed earlier in the week. The Boston Globe article mentions that the MBTA will be running in full force Monday, but public transit service is likely to get reduced as soon as they come up with a plan to do so.
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Day 43: Just Get Tested
PlagueBlog has noticed that the mob microphone that is the Internet has not actually caught on to the fact that you can just get tested now in the US, by your own doctor, using the same labs (Quest and LabCorp) they use for every other test they give you, without any clearance, interference, or gate-keeping from your state, commonwealth, or the CDC. If your doctor refuses to test you, do not blame your state, commonwealth, or the CDC; blame the malfunctioning mob microphone.
The US is at over 2,800 cases and 57 deaths. Massachusetts is at 138 cases, 104 attributed to Biogen, 21 not yet attributed to Biogen, travel-related cases unchanged, and the Berkshire 8 unchanged except now somewhat anonymized as "Western MA cluster". (Nevertheless, the Boston public schools will be closed until April 27th.) New York State is at over 600 cases and two deaths, an 82-year-old woman in the city and a 65-year-old man in Rockland County. Connecticut has reached 11 cases.
Remember, you can just get tested.
The US is at over 2,800 cases and 57 deaths. Massachusetts is at 138 cases, 104 attributed to Biogen, 21 not yet attributed to Biogen, travel-related cases unchanged, and the Berkshire 8 unchanged except now somewhat anonymized as "Western MA cluster". (Nevertheless, the Boston public schools will be closed until April 27th.) New York State is at over 600 cases and two deaths, an 82-year-old woman in the city and a 65-year-old man in Rockland County. Connecticut has reached 11 cases.
Remember, you can just get tested.
Friday, March 13, 2020
Day 42: Fly Now or Forever Shelter in Place
Today's numbers (according to BNO) have exceeded 138,000 cases, 5,000 dead, and 70,000 recovered. Italy has exceeded 15,000 cases and 1,000 dead. Iran is over 11,000 cases and 500 dead. South Korea, the new social distancing capital of the world, has kept their numbers under 8,000 cases, with only 67 dead. Spain is over 4,200 with 120 deaths, while France and Germany are hovering around 3,000 cases.
The US is next up, with 1,832 cases and 41 deaths. (The new deaths appear to have occurred in Washington State, though the CDC hasn't recognized them yet.) No other countries have hit 1,000 yet besides China, whose new case counts have become negligible, though Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries are getting close.
Our World in Data is tracking doubling times, though they only have them listed for EOD Wednesday right now [updated since to Thursday, with cool new graphs], when the US and Spain were at 2 days and Denmark at 1 day to double the number of cases.
Portugal provides a handy map of cases, divided into the usual Norte/Centro/Lisboa/Alentejo/Algarve/Açores/Madeira divisions (except with a rather outsized notion of Lisboa compared to the usual one), along with a chart of symptom onset dates. For confirmed cases, age and sex, number hospitalized, and symptoms are summarized. The rates of symptoms (translated for your convenience) are:
Today is your last chance to fly home to the US from the Schengen area of Europe (i.e., most continental EU countries and some non-EU states with open borders) before Trump's travel ban goes into effect. Forty-eight hours may not sound like much notice compared to the week most closing colleges and universities have given their students to bug out, but it's still generous compared to yesterday's events at CCSU. At 11:00am, in reaction to a student who was a mere contact of a mere suspected case (later proved negative), the President of Connecticut Central State University tossed everyone out immediately. A later update indicates that the residence halls aren't closing until this afternoon (though where the residents were supposed to be in the meantime remains unclear).
New York has opened a drive-through testing facility in New Rochelle which can handle up to 200 cases a day (though perhaps erev Shabbat is not the best time to do so, considering the demographics of that outbreak). The Miami Herald reports that Francis Suarez the mayor of Miami, has tested positive, "four days after the mayor attended a Miami event with a Brazilian government official who later tested positive for the virus." President Bolsonaro was allegedly exposed, and later met with President Trump.
Plague Ships: The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare reports another case off of Germ Boat #2; one asymptomatic crew member of the Diamond Princess tested positive upon release from quarantine and was sent to hospital. This brings the case count up to 697.
We have a Germ Boat #12, a Viking Cruise Journey riverboat, the RV Bassac Pandaw, with a capacity of 60 passengers. VOA Cambodia reports that one out of five passengers tested positive on Tuesday after Vietnamese authorities alerted Cambodian authorities of a case on their flight from London to Hanoi. Subsequently the remaining 59 passengers [sic] were tested and two more positive cases were found, for a total of three. (The five mentioned in the headline is the total across Cambodia.)
Business Insider reports that Viking Cruises has since suspended operations, and the Washington Post reports (behind a paywall) that Disney has as well. Once again #12 may be the last germ boat, though PlagueBlog suspects otherwise.
Local cancellations: Universal Hub reports that nine local Orthodox Jewish congregations (though that's not nearly all of them) have suspended services starting immediately.
P.S. The President declared a national emergency at a White House presser this afternoon, during which far too many important American health care industry executives (including one from Quest) got far too close to the possibly-exposed President. During questioning he mentioned that Bolsonaro has tested negative (though his wife tested positive), but PlagueBlog doubts the negative result can be relied upon so early on.
P.P.S. Massachusetts' numbers for today are 123 cases (15 over yesterday), with 94 connected to Biogen and 16 not yet connected to Biogen ("under investigation"). The Berkshire cluster and travel numbers are unchanged.
The US is next up, with 1,832 cases and 41 deaths. (The new deaths appear to have occurred in Washington State, though the CDC hasn't recognized them yet.) No other countries have hit 1,000 yet besides China, whose new case counts have become negligible, though Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries are getting close.
Our World in Data is tracking doubling times, though they only have them listed for EOD Wednesday right now [updated since to Thursday, with cool new graphs], when the US and Spain were at 2 days and Denmark at 1 day to double the number of cases.
Portugal provides a handy map of cases, divided into the usual Norte/Centro/Lisboa/Alentejo/Algarve/Açores/Madeira divisions (except with a rather outsized notion of Lisboa compared to the usual one), along with a chart of symptom onset dates. For confirmed cases, age and sex, number hospitalized, and symptoms are summarized. The rates of symptoms (translated for your convenience) are:
| Cough | Fever | Difficulty Breathing | Headache | Muscle Pain | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 46% | 10% | 37% | 40% | 24% |
Today is your last chance to fly home to the US from the Schengen area of Europe (i.e., most continental EU countries and some non-EU states with open borders) before Trump's travel ban goes into effect. Forty-eight hours may not sound like much notice compared to the week most closing colleges and universities have given their students to bug out, but it's still generous compared to yesterday's events at CCSU. At 11:00am, in reaction to a student who was a mere contact of a mere suspected case (later proved negative), the President of Connecticut Central State University tossed everyone out immediately. A later update indicates that the residence halls aren't closing until this afternoon (though where the residents were supposed to be in the meantime remains unclear).
New York has opened a drive-through testing facility in New Rochelle which can handle up to 200 cases a day (though perhaps erev Shabbat is not the best time to do so, considering the demographics of that outbreak). The Miami Herald reports that Francis Suarez the mayor of Miami, has tested positive, "four days after the mayor attended a Miami event with a Brazilian government official who later tested positive for the virus." President Bolsonaro was allegedly exposed, and later met with President Trump.
Plague Ships: The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare reports another case off of Germ Boat #2; one asymptomatic crew member of the Diamond Princess tested positive upon release from quarantine and was sent to hospital. This brings the case count up to 697.
We have a Germ Boat #12, a Viking Cruise Journey riverboat, the RV Bassac Pandaw, with a capacity of 60 passengers. VOA Cambodia reports that one out of five passengers tested positive on Tuesday after Vietnamese authorities alerted Cambodian authorities of a case on their flight from London to Hanoi. Subsequently the remaining 59 passengers [sic] were tested and two more positive cases were found, for a total of three. (The five mentioned in the headline is the total across Cambodia.)
Business Insider reports that Viking Cruises has since suspended operations, and the Washington Post reports (behind a paywall) that Disney has as well. Once again #12 may be the last germ boat, though PlagueBlog suspects otherwise.
Local cancellations: Universal Hub reports that nine local Orthodox Jewish congregations (though that's not nearly all of them) have suspended services starting immediately.
P.S. The President declared a national emergency at a White House presser this afternoon, during which far too many important American health care industry executives (including one from Quest) got far too close to the possibly-exposed President. During questioning he mentioned that Bolsonaro has tested negative (though his wife tested positive), but PlagueBlog doubts the negative result can be relied upon so early on.
P.P.S. Massachusetts' numbers for today are 123 cases (15 over yesterday), with 94 connected to Biogen and 16 not yet connected to Biogen ("under investigation"). The Berkshire cluster and travel numbers are unchanged.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
Day 41: Celebrity Death Pool
The upper echelons of Iranian society were hit "early" on (due to the same people ignoring community spread for weeks on end), but as of yesterday the US is accumulating celebrity cases: Tom Hanks, his wife Rita Wilson (apparently on location in Australia), Utah Jazz player Rudy Gobert (who shut down the NBA single-handedly, possibly by touching all the mics at a presser), a congressional staffer, and a production crew member of Riverdale, a CW TV show. On the other hand, Steve Wozniak's wife turned out to just have a sinus infection after all, and Daniel Radcliffe was also just a rumor.
Kim Jong-un has allegedly fled Pyongyang to avoid infection. In Italy, you can be charged with murder for breaking quarantine. Ravenous wild monkeys with no tourists to feed them are "terrorizing" Lopburi, Thailand.
The Germ Boat count may finally be slowing down. Newsweek reports that Carnival Corporation has suspended all Princess Cruises (operators of Germ Boats #2, #6, #8, and #10) operations for two months. But Carnival is a bigger company than that, with 9 other cruise lines, many of which have already hit the germ boat list: the Holland America Line (#4), AIDA Cruises (#5), Carnival Cruise Line (#7), Costa Cruises (#9), Carnival CSSC, the Cunard Line, the Seabourn Cruise Line, P&O Cruises, and P&O Cruises Australia. Politico reports on the shenanigans of cruise companies in general; PlagueBlog expects more plague ships to come.
Cancellations: Congress has closed the Capitol, House, and Senate to the public. Apparently we have a pro soccer league here in the US, and their season is suspended, too.
P.S. Today's count for Massachusetts is 108, 82 from Biogen, 5 from travel, a cluster of 8 at the Berkshire Medical Center, and 9 still under investigation. Of the 13 new cases, 5 are Biogen-related (thus far). A coronavirus patient who had not travelled was not properly isolated at the Berkshire Medical Center earlier this month, leading to the quarantine of over 50 nurses. The governor has already said we have community spread out there, but the county has only 9 cases total so far so PlagueBlog is unsure what exactly is going on in the Berkshires.
Kim Jong-un has allegedly fled Pyongyang to avoid infection. In Italy, you can be charged with murder for breaking quarantine. Ravenous wild monkeys with no tourists to feed them are "terrorizing" Lopburi, Thailand.
The Germ Boat count may finally be slowing down. Newsweek reports that Carnival Corporation has suspended all Princess Cruises (operators of Germ Boats #2, #6, #8, and #10) operations for two months. But Carnival is a bigger company than that, with 9 other cruise lines, many of which have already hit the germ boat list: the Holland America Line (#4), AIDA Cruises (#5), Carnival Cruise Line (#7), Costa Cruises (#9), Carnival CSSC, the Cunard Line, the Seabourn Cruise Line, P&O Cruises, and P&O Cruises Australia. Politico reports on the shenanigans of cruise companies in general; PlagueBlog expects more plague ships to come.
Cancellations: Congress has closed the Capitol, House, and Senate to the public. Apparently we have a pro soccer league here in the US, and their season is suspended, too.
P.S. Today's count for Massachusetts is 108, 82 from Biogen, 5 from travel, a cluster of 8 at the Berkshire Medical Center, and 9 still under investigation. Of the 13 new cases, 5 are Biogen-related (thus far). A coronavirus patient who had not travelled was not properly isolated at the Berkshire Medical Center earlier this month, leading to the quarantine of over 50 nurses. The governor has already said we have community spread out there, but the county has only 9 cases total so far so PlagueBlog is unsure what exactly is going on in the Berkshires.
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Day 40: Mens et Manus
China continues to report low numbers, though they are now experiencing significant importation of cases. Italy has exceeded 10,000 cases, with 631 deaths. Iran has 9,000 cases with 354 deaths, plus 27 deaths from methanol poisoning resulting from a rumored alcohol cure (and, PlagueBlog presumes, a lack of understanding about what sorts of alcohol one should drink). Teheran is now the epicenter of the outbreak, with over 1,800 cases. A second case has been confirmed in Nigeria, in a contact of the first case. In Harare, Zimbabwe, a Thai man fled the hospital to avoid testing.
The US is at 1016 cases with 31 deaths, the latest being a Sacramento County assisted living resident in their 90's. Currently, Washington State leads the nation with 267 cases and 24 deaths. New York, with 173 cases (no deaths), has pulled ahead of California's 109 cases (3 deaths). Massachusetts has the only other large number at 92 cases (though PlagueBlog expects another surge when the DoPH updates again at 4pm). Twelve states and all the territories remain unaffected.
Cancellations: Today's byline is in honor of MIT's closure. Citizenry has a list of college-level closures. Last night, Philadelphia cancelled its St. Patrick's Day parade (via Facebook). DC has "postponed" theirs. Italy, of course, remains closed.
Plague Ships: The saga of Germ Boat #6 floats on: The Mercury News reports that less than half of the passengers had disembarked by last night. Two days apparently only sufficed to remove the ill, Californians, Canadians, and 100 Brits. The fate of the "mostly international" crew is the most in doubt; one plan that's been floated is quarantining them aboard the otherwise empty ship off the coast. The case count for the current cruise as unexpectedly announced by the Vice President was 19 crew and 2 passengers; there seem to have been no updates since then.
Recall that Germ Boat #6 was brought to you by a now-deceased Placer County (CA) man who apparently acquired COVID-19 though community spread, then took the Grand Princess's previous cruise to Mexico (February 11th-21st) on which he infected some fellow passengers and crew. Some of the crew remained aboard for the current cruise to Hawaii, though others moved to other ships, eventually causing the shunning of Germ Boats #8 and #10. The count for the cruise to Mexico is still growing and is now at 14 cases and the one death.
Germ Boat #11 is an unnamed Nile cruise ship quarantined Saturday in Luxor with 45 positive cases (later reduced to 20 after more testing). Once again, the situation was identified through a tourist who returned home after a previous cruise and tested positive there (in this case, a Taiwanese American who returned to Taiwan). Today all remaining foreigners (46 French and American passengers, plus 18 Indians), were released and flown home. Domestic cases may still be quarantined.
P.S. Lawful Masses has an informative video about the Grand Princess lawsuit.
P.P.S. Here on the other germ coast, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has announced 3 new cases. Also, the CDC has deigned to confirm 5 more of our cases, bringing their total up to 6 out of 95. Biogen cases have increased to 77 out of the 95 (4 more than the new cases for today), so some old cases must have been traced to them.
P.P.P.S. The methanol death count in Iran has risen to 44. Colleges and universities continued to announce closures throughout the day. Also, for a touch of Italy, the governor of New York locked down the New Rochelle cluster with the help of the National Guard.
P.P.P.P.S. There's been some misreporting of Daniele Rugani (Juventus/IT) as the first or second (after Timo Hubers of Hannover 96/DE) soccer player to fall ill. PlagueBlog readers know he's at best the third down; the first soccer player victim was Elham Sheikhi, late of the Iran national women's futsal team.
P.P.P.P.P.S. Italy has closed for business except for pharmacies and grocery stores.
P.P.P.P.P.P.S. There were five new deaths in Washington State. CNN reports that the NBA suspended their season in the middle of a Utah Jazz game tonight, due to an infected player.
The US is at 1016 cases with 31 deaths, the latest being a Sacramento County assisted living resident in their 90's. Currently, Washington State leads the nation with 267 cases and 24 deaths. New York, with 173 cases (no deaths), has pulled ahead of California's 109 cases (3 deaths). Massachusetts has the only other large number at 92 cases (though PlagueBlog expects another surge when the DoPH updates again at 4pm). Twelve states and all the territories remain unaffected.
Cancellations: Today's byline is in honor of MIT's closure. Citizenry has a list of college-level closures. Last night, Philadelphia cancelled its St. Patrick's Day parade (via Facebook). DC has "postponed" theirs. Italy, of course, remains closed.
Plague Ships: The saga of Germ Boat #6 floats on: The Mercury News reports that less than half of the passengers had disembarked by last night. Two days apparently only sufficed to remove the ill, Californians, Canadians, and 100 Brits. The fate of the "mostly international" crew is the most in doubt; one plan that's been floated is quarantining them aboard the otherwise empty ship off the coast. The case count for the current cruise as unexpectedly announced by the Vice President was 19 crew and 2 passengers; there seem to have been no updates since then.
Recall that Germ Boat #6 was brought to you by a now-deceased Placer County (CA) man who apparently acquired COVID-19 though community spread, then took the Grand Princess's previous cruise to Mexico (February 11th-21st) on which he infected some fellow passengers and crew. Some of the crew remained aboard for the current cruise to Hawaii, though others moved to other ships, eventually causing the shunning of Germ Boats #8 and #10. The count for the cruise to Mexico is still growing and is now at 14 cases and the one death.
Germ Boat #11 is an unnamed Nile cruise ship quarantined Saturday in Luxor with 45 positive cases (later reduced to 20 after more testing). Once again, the situation was identified through a tourist who returned home after a previous cruise and tested positive there (in this case, a Taiwanese American who returned to Taiwan). Today all remaining foreigners (46 French and American passengers, plus 18 Indians), were released and flown home. Domestic cases may still be quarantined.
P.S. Lawful Masses has an informative video about the Grand Princess lawsuit.
P.P.S. Here on the other germ coast, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has announced 3 new cases. Also, the CDC has deigned to confirm 5 more of our cases, bringing their total up to 6 out of 95. Biogen cases have increased to 77 out of the 95 (4 more than the new cases for today), so some old cases must have been traced to them.
P.P.P.S. The methanol death count in Iran has risen to 44. Colleges and universities continued to announce closures throughout the day. Also, for a touch of Italy, the governor of New York locked down the New Rochelle cluster with the help of the National Guard.
P.P.P.P.S. There's been some misreporting of Daniele Rugani (Juventus/IT) as the first or second (after Timo Hubers of Hannover 96/DE) soccer player to fall ill. PlagueBlog readers know he's at best the third down; the first soccer player victim was Elham Sheikhi, late of the Iran national women's futsal team.
P.P.P.P.P.S. Italy has closed for business except for pharmacies and grocery stores.
P.P.P.P.P.P.S. There were five new deaths in Washington State. CNN reports that the NBA suspended their season in the middle of a Utah Jazz game tonight, due to an infected player.
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Day 39: Don't Come Back
Coronavirus cases have now exceeded 116,000, with over 4,000 dead and 64,000 recovered. Italy now leads the non-Chinese pack at over 9,000 cases with 463 dead, and has suspended mortgage payments. Next up is Iran with over 8,000 cases, while South Korea is only slightly above 7,500. Spain is over 1,600, France 1,400, and Germany 1,200. Austria (157 cases) has restricted public gatherings.
For the US, Johns Hopkins calls us at 761 cases now (BNO says 717), with 27 deaths (2 in California, 2 in Florida, and the remainder in Washington State). Testing is ongoing at the Life Care Center of Kirkland, WA, which once had 120 residents (13 to 19 of whom died from coronavirus, depending on who's counting and how recently) but now has less than 60. Of the residents, 31 tested positive, 1 negative, 3 inconclusive, and 20 are pending. Uninfected residents will be moved elsewhere. Apparently there aren't enough test kits for the 65 symptomatic staff members.
The CPAC super-contacter came into contact with but did not infect the President's chief of staff, who is self-quarantining anyway. On the other end of the social spectrum, Fox News reports the city of Detroit is turning the water back on for some non-payers for a $25 fee (possibly waived) and $25 a month, in order to encourage hand washing. PlagueBlog wonders how much the non-payers owe that that plan sounded reasonable to someone, and how it is that people are allowed to live on the books in homes that are unfit for occupancy.
Here in Massachusetts, the gift of the Biogen conference just keeps on giving. If you know where to look, you can get our real case count (41, as of yesterday) broken down by Biogen-did-it, sex, hospitalization status, and county. For those of you unfamiliar withthis cesspool of germs the area, Middlesex, Norfolk, and Suffolk County are the Greater Boston area and account for 35 of the cases.) We're currently at 32 Biogen cases, 4 travel-related cases (I'm guessing the one Chinese student and 3 ex Italy), and 5 that they're still investigating (maybe-Biogen-did-it).
On the Plague Ship front, the Straits Times reports on Germ Boat #9, the Costa Fortuna, which successfully docked in Singapore and passengers were allowed off, after having been refused at several Asian ports along their itinerary and having prompted Malaysia to ban cruise ships (apparently due to some healthy Italian passengers). Its next cruise, set to end in Italy, has been cancelled.
Time reports on a new one, Germ Boat #10, another Princess Cruises ship, the Caribbean Princess, also with crew off an infected ship (two of them, presumably off the previous cruise of the Grand Princess, though the papers seem to be having trouble keeping track). The CDC got involved and issued a no-sail order; the passengers are trapped aboard for the moment. The Grand Princess herself (#6) safely docked in Oakland, CA yesterday, though not all passengers disembarked then. Today's news is that passengers are already suing from aboard ship. (PlagueBlog recommends that you disembark from the death trap first, then sue.)
A 24-year-old Vietnamese woman (not to be confused with the jet-setting infected Vietnamese fashion model) returned to Vietnam after being refused testing in London. She tested positive there, becoming Vietnam's "Patient 32". It's not clear she's ex London, though, because she probably caught it from "Patient 17", another Vietnamese visitor to London who had also visited Italy and France (and quite possibly the jet setter or her equally-infected sister).
Local cancellations: Yesterday, Amherst College led the Mass pack by announcing they're going online-only after spring break. (The other four colleges announced plans to keep tabs on the situation, except for UMass Amherst, which says it formed a task force.) Today Harvard joined in. BIDA dances are cancelled through March. Balkan Music Night is also cancelled.
P.S. Channel 10 reports that Dunkies will no longer be refilling reusable coffee cups. PlagueBlog awaits Starbucks' announcement that they'll be creaming your coffee themselves like a real coffee shop, so you don't have to touch the same cream pitcher every other yuppie in town has touched today.
P.P.S. Our governor came home from vacation to declare a state of emergency (or, as PlagueBlog prefers to put it, a Commonwealth of Emergency), perhaps due to our 51 new cases, for a total of 92, 70 from Biogen alone (see this MSN article for details of the dinner and two conferences involved), and 18 untraced. Rhode Island (which is actually a state) and Ohio declared theirs yesterday.
P.P.P.S. The US has hit 1,000 cases, with 30 deaths. The extra deaths are the first New Jersey death, a travel-related case/death in South Dakota, and more deaths in Washington State. Also, MIT has cancelled school for the remainder of the year starting Monday and is sending all students home this coming weekend unless they can prove their home country is more of a basket-case than ours. Facebook and Google have ordered all their North American employees to work from home.
For the US, Johns Hopkins calls us at 761 cases now (BNO says 717), with 27 deaths (2 in California, 2 in Florida, and the remainder in Washington State). Testing is ongoing at the Life Care Center of Kirkland, WA, which once had 120 residents (13 to 19 of whom died from coronavirus, depending on who's counting and how recently) but now has less than 60. Of the residents, 31 tested positive, 1 negative, 3 inconclusive, and 20 are pending. Uninfected residents will be moved elsewhere. Apparently there aren't enough test kits for the 65 symptomatic staff members.
The CPAC super-contacter came into contact with but did not infect the President's chief of staff, who is self-quarantining anyway. On the other end of the social spectrum, Fox News reports the city of Detroit is turning the water back on for some non-payers for a $25 fee (possibly waived) and $25 a month, in order to encourage hand washing. PlagueBlog wonders how much the non-payers owe that that plan sounded reasonable to someone, and how it is that people are allowed to live on the books in homes that are unfit for occupancy.
Here in Massachusetts, the gift of the Biogen conference just keeps on giving. If you know where to look, you can get our real case count (41, as of yesterday) broken down by Biogen-did-it, sex, hospitalization status, and county. For those of you unfamiliar with
On the Plague Ship front, the Straits Times reports on Germ Boat #9, the Costa Fortuna, which successfully docked in Singapore and passengers were allowed off, after having been refused at several Asian ports along their itinerary and having prompted Malaysia to ban cruise ships (apparently due to some healthy Italian passengers). Its next cruise, set to end in Italy, has been cancelled.
Time reports on a new one, Germ Boat #10, another Princess Cruises ship, the Caribbean Princess, also with crew off an infected ship (two of them, presumably off the previous cruise of the Grand Princess, though the papers seem to be having trouble keeping track). The CDC got involved and issued a no-sail order; the passengers are trapped aboard for the moment. The Grand Princess herself (#6) safely docked in Oakland, CA yesterday, though not all passengers disembarked then. Today's news is that passengers are already suing from aboard ship. (PlagueBlog recommends that you disembark from the death trap first, then sue.)
A 24-year-old Vietnamese woman (not to be confused with the jet-setting infected Vietnamese fashion model) returned to Vietnam after being refused testing in London. She tested positive there, becoming Vietnam's "Patient 32". It's not clear she's ex London, though, because she probably caught it from "Patient 17", another Vietnamese visitor to London who had also visited Italy and France (and quite possibly the jet setter or her equally-infected sister).
Local cancellations: Yesterday, Amherst College led the Mass pack by announcing they're going online-only after spring break. (The other four colleges announced plans to keep tabs on the situation, except for UMass Amherst, which says it formed a task force.) Today Harvard joined in. BIDA dances are cancelled through March. Balkan Music Night is also cancelled.
P.S. Channel 10 reports that Dunkies will no longer be refilling reusable coffee cups. PlagueBlog awaits Starbucks' announcement that they'll be creaming your coffee themselves like a real coffee shop, so you don't have to touch the same cream pitcher every other yuppie in town has touched today.
P.P.S. Our governor came home from vacation to declare a state of emergency (or, as PlagueBlog prefers to put it, a Commonwealth of Emergency), perhaps due to our 51 new cases, for a total of 92, 70 from Biogen alone (see this MSN article for details of the dinner and two conferences involved), and 18 untraced. Rhode Island (which is actually a state) and Ohio declared theirs yesterday.
P.P.P.S. The US has hit 1,000 cases, with 30 deaths. The extra deaths are the first New Jersey death, a travel-related case/death in South Dakota, and more deaths in Washington State. Also, MIT has cancelled school for the remainder of the year starting Monday and is sending all students home this coming weekend unless they can prove their home country is more of a basket-case than ours. Facebook and Google have ordered all their North American employees to work from home.
Monday, March 09, 2020
Day 38: Closing Schools Like It's 1918
ABC reports from the governor's mouth that New York State has jumped to 142 cases, 19 in the eponymous city. Kansas has reported its first case today. Connecticut reported its first case yesterday, apparently ex California. Washington State has stealthily reported 3 more deaths in their ever-increasing case counts, bringing the US to 22 deaths among 551 cases.
A JAMA paper from 2007 has been making the Internet rounds lately, Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic. The interventions were school closings, isolation/quarantine (isolation for the actually ill, and quarantining of their contacts), and banning of public gatherings:
Individual schools in Boston, Malden, Plainville, Plymouth, Wellesley, and Worcester have closed for Friday or Monday, often for far less reason (e.g., in Worcester it's a contact of a relative of a staffer) in conjunction with a wiping-down-the-school effort and a planned reopening after the scrub. This is hardly a unified public health intervention. At least Boston University is planning for remote learning, though in an abundance-of-caution way rather than a do-it-yesterday way.
Education Week has a map of coronavirus-related school closures, though several recent Massachusetts cases seem to be misreported at ongoing closures rather than cleaning days. (Wellesley has already reopened.) New York and New Jersey have several district closures. In Seattle, whose response time wasn't too bad in 1918, many schools have already reopened.
Cancellations: Never mind those scrub-by-night school cancellations; NEFFA has been cancelled.
P.S. The New York Post reports the head of the Port Authority was among today’s cases. Though he’s been in contact with the governor, he’s not getting tested.
P.P.S. Five more deaths, four in Washington and one through community spread in Santa Clara County, California, have brought the US death count to 27. Santa Clara County has cancelled "mass" gatherings (of a thousand people) for three weeks. Italy has banned gatherings and restricted movement across the country.
P.P.P.S. Following in Ireland's footsteps, Boston has cancelled our St. Patrick's Day parade. Chicago has not.
A JAMA paper from 2007 has been making the Internet rounds lately, Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic. The interventions were school closings, isolation/quarantine (isolation for the actually ill, and quarantining of their contacts), and banning of public gatherings:
Public gathering bans typically meant the closure of saloons, public entertainment venues, sporting events, and indoor gatherings were banned or moved outdoors; outdoor gatherings were not always canceled during this period (eg, Liberty bond parades); there were no recorded bans on shopping in grocery and drug stores.While people were still susceptible to flu after (or during) these interventions, they did have some benefits, namely,
[...]delaying the temporal effect of a pandemic; reducing the overall and peak attack rate; and reducing the number of cumulative deaths. Such measures could potentially provide valuable time for production and distribution of pandemic-strain vaccine and antiviral medication. Optimally, appropriate implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions would decrease the burden on health care services and critical infrastructure.It's a good read, but the tl;dr conclusion is:
These findings contrast with the conventional wisdom that the 1918 pandemic rapidly spread through each community killing everyone in its path. Although these urban communities had neither effective vaccines nor antivirals, cities that were able to organize and execute a suite of classic public health interventions before the pandemic swept fully through the city appeared to have an associated mitigated epidemic experience.It would be nice if we learned from the past, but we seem to forget instead. New York City was a model of public health promptness a hundred years ago, while Boston took a long time to react and suffered for it (see Table 1). Nevertheless, a few Massachusetts schools have closed for the moment: The Stratton School in Arlington was closed by the city due to a Biogen parent's symptomatic kid.
Individual schools in Boston, Malden, Plainville, Plymouth, Wellesley, and Worcester have closed for Friday or Monday, often for far less reason (e.g., in Worcester it's a contact of a relative of a staffer) in conjunction with a wiping-down-the-school effort and a planned reopening after the scrub. This is hardly a unified public health intervention. At least Boston University is planning for remote learning, though in an abundance-of-caution way rather than a do-it-yesterday way.
Education Week has a map of coronavirus-related school closures, though several recent Massachusetts cases seem to be misreported at ongoing closures rather than cleaning days. (Wellesley has already reopened.) New York and New Jersey have several district closures. In Seattle, whose response time wasn't too bad in 1918, many schools have already reopened.
Cancellations: Never mind those scrub-by-night school cancellations; NEFFA has been cancelled.
P.S. The New York Post reports the head of the Port Authority was among today’s cases. Though he’s been in contact with the governor, he’s not getting tested.
P.P.S. Five more deaths, four in Washington and one through community spread in Santa Clara County, California, have brought the US death count to 27. Santa Clara County has cancelled "mass" gatherings (of a thousand people) for three weeks. Italy has banned gatherings and restricted movement across the country.
P.P.P.S. Following in Ireland's footsteps, Boston has cancelled our St. Patrick's Day parade. Chicago has not.
Sunday, March 08, 2020
Day 37: The Band Plays On
The Associated Press reports on our elderly presidential contenders campaigning on, including a quote from a Bernie Sis who thinks coronavirus is just "to distract people." In other news, Oregon has declared a state of emergency, presumably to distract people, and Twitter reports two more retroactive deaths at the Life Care Center of Kirkland, WA. The total case count for the US is 475.
Massachusetts insurers will be fully covering coronavirus testing, but then they're used to paying for the weird stuff. YMMV if you live elsewhere in the US. It's a good thing, too, because our Department of Public Health has announced 15 new presumptive cases (all from Biogen's battiness), increasing our count to 28 (with 23 directly linked to Biogen).
New Jersey is up to 6 cases. Vermont announced its first case yesterday. The New York Times now has a US case map.
The US State Department joins PlagueBlog in recommending against cruise ship travel. Though their purview is international travel, their advice is surprisingly unqualified:
Israel (with a case count of 39, only one untraced) is quarantining all arrivals, while Micronesia has closed its borders completely. France has banned public gatherings of more than 1,000 people, except for protests. (It's unclear whether this is a civil rights exception or a final solution to France's protest problems.)
Massachusetts insurers will be fully covering coronavirus testing, but then they're used to paying for the weird stuff. YMMV if you live elsewhere in the US. It's a good thing, too, because our Department of Public Health has announced 15 new presumptive cases (all from Biogen's battiness), increasing our count to 28 (with 23 directly linked to Biogen).
New Jersey is up to 6 cases. Vermont announced its first case yesterday. The New York Times now has a US case map.
The US State Department joins PlagueBlog in recommending against cruise ship travel. Though their purview is international travel, their advice is surprisingly unqualified:
U.S. citizens, particularly travelers with underlying health conditions, should not travel by cruise ship.Speaking of plague ships, Germ Boat #8, the Regal Princess, is currently pacing back and forth off South Florida after being refused docking in Fort Lauderdale pending testing of two crew members formerly of Germ Boat #6, the Grand Princess.
Israel (with a case count of 39, only one untraced) is quarantining all arrivals, while Micronesia has closed its borders completely. France has banned public gatherings of more than 1,000 people, except for protests. (It's unclear whether this is a civil rights exception or a final solution to France's protest problems.)
Day 36 Retrospective
Day 36 (yesterday) was an exciting day for the Northeast and US Germ Boats. New York’s caseload jumped to 76, prompting the governor to declare a state of emergency. Acela service between NYC and DC was cancelled until late May. Bloomberg reports bad times for our lobster industry, what with the bottom falling out of the Asian giant edible spider import market.
The Commonwealth of Massachusetts now has our own tracker, which still lists yesterday’s stats of 13 cases. An infectious disease conference in Boston (CROI) was moved online, because apparently not everyone in the biotech sector here is completely insane.
Vice President Pence accidentally announced 21 confirmed cases aboard Germ Boat #6, the Grand Princess. Also, a Germ Boat #7 was christened when a “medical matter” (that is, a suspected coronavirus case) trapped passengers aboard the Carnival Panorama in Long Beach, CA, until a negative test result could be obtained. (The following cruise was shortened by one day.) PlagueBlog recommends against taking cruises at this (or any) time. At least one more death has been recorded for #2, the Diamond Princess, as well, bringing the official total to 7.
Another LAX screener was diagnosed. The US hit 19 deaths and Brazil hit 17 cases (two in Rio). MasterCard closed its offices in NYC and São Paulo due to a coronaviral connection between the two. The SXSW conference that several tech companies pulled out of earlier in the week has been cancelled.
A relatively new Chinese hotel in Quanzhou housing quarantined case contacts collapsed, killing at least 10. The Pope started streaming to keep crowds from gathering to see him, and the Vatican confirmed its first case.
Poland’s sixth case apparently caught it from the first case on a bus. The leader of the Italian Democratic Party fell ill. A cluster of 60 cases in Spain was linked to a funeral. The Netherlands reported their first death and a total of 182 cases.
The Commonwealth of Massachusetts now has our own tracker, which still lists yesterday’s stats of 13 cases. An infectious disease conference in Boston (CROI) was moved online, because apparently not everyone in the biotech sector here is completely insane.
Vice President Pence accidentally announced 21 confirmed cases aboard Germ Boat #6, the Grand Princess. Also, a Germ Boat #7 was christened when a “medical matter” (that is, a suspected coronavirus case) trapped passengers aboard the Carnival Panorama in Long Beach, CA, until a negative test result could be obtained. (The following cruise was shortened by one day.) PlagueBlog recommends against taking cruises at this (or any) time. At least one more death has been recorded for #2, the Diamond Princess, as well, bringing the official total to 7.
Another LAX screener was diagnosed. The US hit 19 deaths and Brazil hit 17 cases (two in Rio). MasterCard closed its offices in NYC and São Paulo due to a coronaviral connection between the two. The SXSW conference that several tech companies pulled out of earlier in the week has been cancelled.
A relatively new Chinese hotel in Quanzhou housing quarantined case contacts collapsed, killing at least 10. The Pope started streaming to keep crowds from gathering to see him, and the Vatican confirmed its first case.
Poland’s sixth case apparently caught it from the first case on a bus. The leader of the Italian Democratic Party fell ill. A cluster of 60 cases in Spain was linked to a funeral. The Netherlands reported their first death and a total of 182 cases.
Friday, March 06, 2020
Day 35: 100,000 Strong
Today the worldwide case count hit 100,000, with over 55,000 recovered and almost 3,400 dead. PlagueBlog will be at an inadvisable public gathering on the NH/MA border this weekend and will be unable to provide our usual level of gory detail. Just one note: Biogen maintains that its three infected employees are all out of state, even though they seem to have infected one another here in Massachusetts, meaning that the ex Italy case in their county is not an employee. PlagueBlog reserves judgement for the moment.
One other point of information: you may have heard about two strains, L and S, one nastier than the other, of SARS-Cov-2. The paper the media picked this up from is pretty baseless and has already been debunked in the literature, so ignore.
P.S. Channel 4 reports 3 Massachusetts cases from Biogen’s what-were-you-thinking conference last week, and 2 more out-of-state cases.
One other point of information: you may have heard about two strains, L and S, one nastier than the other, of SARS-Cov-2. The paper the media picked this up from is pretty baseless and has already been debunked in the literature, so ignore.
P.S. Channel 4 reports 3 Massachusetts cases from Biogen’s what-were-you-thinking conference last week, and 2 more out-of-state cases.
Thursday, March 05, 2020
Day 34: Ex Boston
Channel 5 reports that we may have exported coronavirus to Tennessee in the person of a Williamson County (TN) man who flew from Nashville to Logan and back. Channel 10 reports he came to Boston for an international meeting "at Biogen" in Cambridge [reddit speculates this meeting was actually at the Boston Marriott Copley Square in the heart of Boston] last week, from which attendees took home both flu and COVID-19 (three positives so far). Our third Massachusetts case, also in Middlesex County (location of both Cambridge and yours truly) has been reported by the state as ex Italy but by NBC as ex Biogen, is awaiting confirmation by the CDC. PlagueBlog would like to thank you now for reading, because posting may come to an abrupt and possibly permanent halt at any time now.
Boston.com reports that the wayward New Hampshire medical worker "is now complying" with quarantine after exposing a bunch of Dartmouth Tuck Business School students at a mixer. One Tuck student "estimated that about a hundred business school students attended, along with 30 or 40 resident physicians associated with Dartmouth-Hitchcock, an academic medical center located near Dartmouth College."
In other local news, Governor Cuomo tweets that there are 5 new confirmed cases in New Rochelle, a couple in their 40's with three children who were friends of the previous family. There are also two untraced cases in New York City. New Jersey has two presumptive cases.
Texas has three new cases, two of them in Harris County (i.e., Houston). California is lousy with cases, but a notable one is one of the medical screeners from LAX. The CDC state-by-state map is updating daily again, possibly due to agitation from reddit. In less official but more accurate news-based counting, the US is up to 221 cases and 12 deaths.
An eight-month-old baby is a new Australian case, ex Iran. South Africa's first case is ex Italy.
On the bright side, the Diamond Princess has been downgraded to 696 cases and 6 deaths, due to some double-counting of cases.
P.S. Germ Boat #6 is another Princess Cruises ship, the Grand Princess. The story is similar to that of previous Germ Boats: passengers on a prior cruise later tested positive (including one death; these are some of the California mainland cases), so the current passengers have been condemned to a slow death by quarantine off the coast near San Francisco. Test kits are being flown in by helicopter.
Boston.com reports that the wayward New Hampshire medical worker "is now complying" with quarantine after exposing a bunch of Dartmouth Tuck Business School students at a mixer. One Tuck student "estimated that about a hundred business school students attended, along with 30 or 40 resident physicians associated with Dartmouth-Hitchcock, an academic medical center located near Dartmouth College."
In other local news, Governor Cuomo tweets that there are 5 new confirmed cases in New Rochelle, a couple in their 40's with three children who were friends of the previous family. There are also two untraced cases in New York City. New Jersey has two presumptive cases.
Texas has three new cases, two of them in Harris County (i.e., Houston). California is lousy with cases, but a notable one is one of the medical screeners from LAX. The CDC state-by-state map is updating daily again, possibly due to agitation from reddit. In less official but more accurate news-based counting, the US is up to 221 cases and 12 deaths.
An eight-month-old baby is a new Australian case, ex Iran. South Africa's first case is ex Italy.
On the bright side, the Diamond Princess has been downgraded to 696 cases and 6 deaths, due to some double-counting of cases.
P.S. Germ Boat #6 is another Princess Cruises ship, the Grand Princess. The story is similar to that of previous Germ Boats: passengers on a prior cruise later tested positive (including one death; these are some of the California mainland cases), so the current passengers have been condemned to a slow death by quarantine off the coast near San Francisco. Test kits are being flown in by helicopter.
Wednesday, March 04, 2020
Day 33: Biden Our Time
Iran has leapt ahead of Italy, with 2,922 cases (including 23 members of parliament) and 92 deaths. The Ayatollah was seen wearing gloves. Germany and France have each exceeded 200 cases and Spain is not far behind. Case counts are rising across Europe, with notable jumps in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, and the Netherlands. Portugal now has five cases (the fifth ex Italy, and the third and fourth connected to the initial two). Poland, famed for its resistance to the Black Death, has reported its first case.
Here in the New World, Canada is up to 33 cases, with several new cases ex Iran, while Mexico is holding at 5 and Brazil at 2. (The low case count in South America is the only thing between us and the WHO declaring this a pandemic.) The US has reached 132 cases, with 9 deaths (all in Washington State). CNN is tracking cases state-by-state. Most of today's new cases are in California and associated with travel, though at least one is untraced.
Governor Cuomo announced that many suspected New York State cases, including those in Buffalo and Oneida, tested negative. On the downside, the 50-year-old Westchester County case managed to super-spread the virus to his wife, a son (20), a daughter (14), and a neighbor. The children's schools (including Yeshiva University) will be closed today. He also announced that SUNY/CUNY students studying abroad in certain countries will be flown home and quarantined.
Here in the New World, Canada is up to 33 cases, with several new cases ex Iran, while Mexico is holding at 5 and Brazil at 2. (The low case count in South America is the only thing between us and the WHO declaring this a pandemic.) The US has reached 132 cases, with 9 deaths (all in Washington State). CNN is tracking cases state-by-state. Most of today's new cases are in California and associated with travel, though at least one is untraced.
Governor Cuomo announced that many suspected New York State cases, including those in Buffalo and Oneida, tested negative. On the downside, the 50-year-old Westchester County case managed to super-spread the virus to his wife, a son (20), a daughter (14), and a neighbor. The children's schools (including Yeshiva University) will be closed today. He also announced that SUNY/CUNY students studying abroad in certain countries will be flown home and quarantined.
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Day 32: Don't Lick the Shrine
The official case count is now over 92,000 cases. While Italy has exceeded 2,000 cases and South Korea 5,000, Iran (2,336) continues to be the most infectious, with almost as many new cases per day (835 today) as South Korea and the only significant death rate (11 today) outside of China (33 today). Notable figures in society continue to fall ill; the head of emergency services is now a confirmed case, and Mohammad Mirmohammadi, member of the Expediency Council and advisor to Khamenei, reportedly died of COVID-19 yesterday. The situation in Iran may have something to do with the government's failure to keep people from licking shrines—or, more likely, the very fact that they needed to tell people not to lick shrines in the first place. PlagueBlog also recommends you don't lick the shrine.
Back on the home front, Boston.com reports some more details about the first Rhode Island case, a school administrator. The second official case is one of the students from that trip to Italy. The article mentions that another chaperone is a suspected case; this suspected case may be Massachusetts' second case, a 27-year-old Cohasset woman who was on the same school trip. Whether a Massachusetts school was involved is still unclear.
Two cases have been confirmed in New York state. The first, a 39-year-old NYC health care worker, was ex Iran, but the second one is suspected local, untraced transmission to a Westchester County man in his 50's over whom not one but two local schools have already closed. Governor Kemp of Georgia reported two confirmed cases there ex Italy.
An unspecified foreigner in his 30's is the 706th case confirmed (yesterday) aboard the Diamond Princess. It's apparently a crew member, not the food blogger, who has escaped confinement (though not Japan) and is still food blogging while waiting to be readmitted to the US.
In non-humanitarian news, a stowaway cat at the port of Chennai is facing deportation over coronavirus fears. PETA India is concerned about its fate if returned to China and has offered to adopt it out.
Cancellations: The Louvre apparently remained closed today, though whether solely through worker action or now officially is unclear. The Japanese government is planning to cancel the annual Fukushima Memorial. The Chicago Tribune reports a major local trade show cancellation as well as other cancellations and postponements across the country. Twitter, Facebook, and Intel have pulled out of the SXSW conference in Austin.
P.S. The AP reports three new deaths in Washington State. Two seem to be posthumous confirmation of deaths from last week, and the third may be yet another nursing home resident from the Life Care Center of Kirkland, WA.
P.P.S. There's a second case in New Hampshire, a close contact of the first patient, though apparently not a result of the first patient breaking quarantine on Friday to attend a social event.
Back on the home front, Boston.com reports some more details about the first Rhode Island case, a school administrator. The second official case is one of the students from that trip to Italy. The article mentions that another chaperone is a suspected case; this suspected case may be Massachusetts' second case, a 27-year-old Cohasset woman who was on the same school trip. Whether a Massachusetts school was involved is still unclear.
Two cases have been confirmed in New York state. The first, a 39-year-old NYC health care worker, was ex Iran, but the second one is suspected local, untraced transmission to a Westchester County man in his 50's over whom not one but two local schools have already closed. Governor Kemp of Georgia reported two confirmed cases there ex Italy.
An unspecified foreigner in his 30's is the 706th case confirmed (yesterday) aboard the Diamond Princess. It's apparently a crew member, not the food blogger, who has escaped confinement (though not Japan) and is still food blogging while waiting to be readmitted to the US.
In non-humanitarian news, a stowaway cat at the port of Chennai is facing deportation over coronavirus fears. PETA India is concerned about its fate if returned to China and has offered to adopt it out.
Cancellations: The Louvre apparently remained closed today, though whether solely through worker action or now officially is unclear. The Japanese government is planning to cancel the annual Fukushima Memorial. The Chicago Tribune reports a major local trade show cancellation as well as other cancellations and postponements across the country. Twitter, Facebook, and Intel have pulled out of the SXSW conference in Austin.
P.S. The AP reports three new deaths in Washington State. Two seem to be posthumous confirmation of deaths from last week, and the third may be yet another nursing home resident from the Life Care Center of Kirkland, WA.
P.P.S. There's a second case in New Hampshire, a close contact of the first patient, though apparently not a result of the first patient breaking quarantine on Friday to attend a social event.
Monday, March 02, 2020
Day 31: The Accusations Fly
The official case count is over 89,000 cases, with over 3,000 dead and over 45,000 recovered. PlagueBlog cannot vouch for the Chinese number, which exceeds 80,000 cases with 2,912 deaths. South Korea now has 4,335 cases with 26 deaths. Iran has surged to 1,501 cases with 66 deaths. Italy is still slightly ahead at 1,696 cases and 34 deaths. Germany has hit 150 cases, France 130, and Spain 120.
Portugal has finally reported cases, both males in Porto, though only one is ex Spain. The 60-year-old doctor vacationed in Italy, while the 33-year-old construction worker worked in Spain and had some connection to Valência. Scotland has also reported its first case, ex Italy.
The US now has 88 cases, but no new deaths since yesterday. CNBC and MSN report on doctors' and suspected patients' lack of access to COVID-19 tests, despite CDC claims to the contrary. The New York Times also links CDC testing restrictions to weeks of covert spread of the virus in the Pacific Northwest. In other news, the CDC once again accidentally released an infected quarantined evacuee in San Antonio, but the patient was quickly recaptured.
The Bangkok Post reports that Thailand's first death, a 35-year-old sales clerk who dealt with Chinese tourists and passed away on Saturday, did not actually have an underlying condition; his dengue fever was a misdiagnosis and his only known disease was COVID-19. He had been in hospital since January 27th, stopped testing positive for coronavirus on February 16th, and succumbed to multiple-organ failure on February 29th.
And lastly, a cool toy: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
P.S. Steve Wozniak theorizes on Twitter that he was the American Patient Zero.
P.P.S. The Washington State cluster has now brought the US death count to 6.
P.P.P.S. New Hampshire has confirmed a case, in a hospital employee, ex Italy. Rumor has it he's been working since he returned from Italy. The nationwide case count is up to 100 as of 9pm EST.
Portugal has finally reported cases, both males in Porto, though only one is ex Spain. The 60-year-old doctor vacationed in Italy, while the 33-year-old construction worker worked in Spain and had some connection to Valência. Scotland has also reported its first case, ex Italy.
The US now has 88 cases, but no new deaths since yesterday. CNBC and MSN report on doctors' and suspected patients' lack of access to COVID-19 tests, despite CDC claims to the contrary. The New York Times also links CDC testing restrictions to weeks of covert spread of the virus in the Pacific Northwest. In other news, the CDC once again accidentally released an infected quarantined evacuee in San Antonio, but the patient was quickly recaptured.
The Bangkok Post reports that Thailand's first death, a 35-year-old sales clerk who dealt with Chinese tourists and passed away on Saturday, did not actually have an underlying condition; his dengue fever was a misdiagnosis and his only known disease was COVID-19. He had been in hospital since January 27th, stopped testing positive for coronavirus on February 16th, and succumbed to multiple-organ failure on February 29th.
And lastly, a cool toy: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
P.S. Steve Wozniak theorizes on Twitter that he was the American Patient Zero.
P.P.S. The Washington State cluster has now brought the US death count to 6.
P.P.P.S. New Hampshire has confirmed a case, in a hospital employee, ex Italy. Rumor has it he's been working since he returned from Italy. The nationwide case count is up to 100 as of 9pm EST.
Sunday, March 01, 2020
Day 30: Looking Fully Incubated Now
NBC News reports that yesterday's death in Washington State turned out to be not just a domestic case, but also another unsourced infection in a non-traveller. In more disturbing news (from the same source), the CDC is responding to "the first possible outbreak" in a long-term care facility, the Life Care Center of Kirkland, WA.
In local news, the first Rhode Island "presumptive" case has been confirmed, a man in his 40's who'd travelled to Italy in February. Forty of his contacts are being monitored and/or quarantined at home by the RI Department of Health, but the patient himself is in an undisclosed hospital "nearby".
The US stands at 73 cases with one death. Canada has 20 cases. Mexico has 4, the fourth is ex Italy. Italy has jumped to 1,694 cases, though only 34 deaths. Unfortunate neighbors Germany and France are at or above 100 cases. Spain is at 76, the UK at 35, and Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, and the Netherlands have at least 10 cases each.
Iran reported 11 new deaths today, bringing their total to 978 cases with 54 deaths. Kuwait and Bahrain are now in the 40's, although Bahrain has only a quarter the population of Singapore.
South Korea has 3,736 with 21 deaths. Japan has 241 cases with 5 deaths. Hong Kong and Singapore have at least 100 cases each. Thailand, currently at 42 cases, has reported their first death.
P.S. PlagueBlog neglected to mention a canine case identified on Thursday: a pet Pomeranian in Hong Kong tested positive for the disease after her owner, Yvonne Chow Hau Yee, fell ill. The dog initially showed no symptoms; PlagueBlog has been unable to find any updates on its disease status, but Hong Kong is now quarantining pets.
P.P.S. New York has reported a case, and Washington State a second death.
P.P.P.S. Another Washington State case is a postal worker. PlagueBlog will refrain from "going postal" puns.
In local news, the first Rhode Island "presumptive" case has been confirmed, a man in his 40's who'd travelled to Italy in February. Forty of his contacts are being monitored and/or quarantined at home by the RI Department of Health, but the patient himself is in an undisclosed hospital "nearby".
The US stands at 73 cases with one death. Canada has 20 cases. Mexico has 4, the fourth is ex Italy. Italy has jumped to 1,694 cases, though only 34 deaths. Unfortunate neighbors Germany and France are at or above 100 cases. Spain is at 76, the UK at 35, and Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, and the Netherlands have at least 10 cases each.
Iran reported 11 new deaths today, bringing their total to 978 cases with 54 deaths. Kuwait and Bahrain are now in the 40's, although Bahrain has only a quarter the population of Singapore.
South Korea has 3,736 with 21 deaths. Japan has 241 cases with 5 deaths. Hong Kong and Singapore have at least 100 cases each. Thailand, currently at 42 cases, has reported their first death.
P.S. PlagueBlog neglected to mention a canine case identified on Thursday: a pet Pomeranian in Hong Kong tested positive for the disease after her owner, Yvonne Chow Hau Yee, fell ill. The dog initially showed no symptoms; PlagueBlog has been unable to find any updates on its disease status, but Hong Kong is now quarantining pets.
P.P.S. New York has reported a case, and Washington State a second death.
P.P.P.S. Another Washington State case is a postal worker. PlagueBlog will refrain from "going postal" puns.
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Day 29: Notable Deaths
The first US death is rumored, in Washington State. PlagueBlog has also not confirmed the rumored death of an Iranian MP.
Friday, February 28, 2020
Day 28: Poetic Justice
Poetic justice continues mowing down Iranian officials; reported cases now include (Ms.) Massoumeh Ebtekar, women's affairs, and Mojtaba Zolnour, national security and foreign affairs. Both are self-quarantined. For the country as a whole, the case count stands at 388 with 34 deaths.
Italy stands at 655 cases with 17 deaths, and has infected most of Europe at this point. More disturbingly, an Italian citizen in Nigeria has fallen ill, for that country's first case. The case was caught early on the patient's return to Nigeria, so the other 205 million Nigerians may be safe for the moment. Switzerland has banned large public events.
Germ Boat #2's case count does not include passengers falling ill after evac so remains steady at 705, but does include passenger deaths in Japanese hospitals, which have risen to 6. In other Japanese news, the governor of Hokkaido (a prefecture including the northernmost large island of Japan as well as some smaller islands) has declared a state of emergency over the local case count (54).
South Korea is now at 2,337 cases with 13 deaths. China continues to claim recovery with only 327 new cases.
Italy stands at 655 cases with 17 deaths, and has infected most of Europe at this point. More disturbingly, an Italian citizen in Nigeria has fallen ill, for that country's first case. The case was caught early on the patient's return to Nigeria, so the other 205 million Nigerians may be safe for the moment. Switzerland has banned large public events.
Germ Boat #2's case count does not include passengers falling ill after evac so remains steady at 705, but does include passenger deaths in Japanese hospitals, which have risen to 6. In other Japanese news, the governor of Hokkaido (a prefecture including the northernmost large island of Japan as well as some smaller islands) has declared a state of emergency over the local case count (54).
South Korea is now at 2,337 cases with 13 deaths. China continues to claim recovery with only 327 new cases.
Thursday, February 27, 2020
Day 27: The Bats Come Home Again
Topping the coronavirus news is our 60th case, a patient at UC Davis medical center in Sacramento, with no known links to travelers. The San Francisco Chronicle reports the patient was apparently transferred there from somewhere in Solano County, California while already intubated. The CDC initially refused to test the patient due to their lack of contacts, and still hopes to find the missing link to China. Several health care workers are under voluntary quarantine.
CoronaChan never sleeps, and there are plenty of other developments to report. Reuters reports Japan will closed all primary and secondary schools for the month of March. With 505 cases yesterday, South Korea has taken over China in daily reported cases (though what is actually going on with China's numbers is unclear) and has hit 1766 cases as of this blogging. The virus is also spreading among the South Korean military, though the case count among the US forces permanently encamped there remains at 2.
The case count for Germ Ship #2, the Diamond Princess, has risen to 705 with 4 deaths.
Italy's count has gone up to 528 cases with 14 deaths. The rumored 50 Iranian deaths have still not shown up in their case counts, which currently stand at 275 cases with 26 deaths. Ilna news reports the sad passing of a 23-year-old women's soccer player from Qom.
CoronaChan never sleeps, and there are plenty of other developments to report. Reuters reports Japan will closed all primary and secondary schools for the month of March. With 505 cases yesterday, South Korea has taken over China in daily reported cases (though what is actually going on with China's numbers is unclear) and has hit 1766 cases as of this blogging. The virus is also spreading among the South Korean military, though the case count among the US forces permanently encamped there remains at 2.
The case count for Germ Ship #2, the Diamond Princess, has risen to 705 with 4 deaths.
Italy's count has gone up to 528 cases with 14 deaths. The rumored 50 Iranian deaths have still not shown up in their case counts, which currently stand at 275 cases with 26 deaths. Ilna news reports the sad passing of a 23-year-old women's soccer player from Qom.
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Day 26: Coronival
Brazil has confirmed the first Latin American coronavirus case, ex Italy (which now has over 450 cases). South Korea is at 1,261 cases. US cases have gone up by about 15 (rather unspecified) travelers and their contacts; President Trump is attempting to throw fistfuls of money at the problem.
Iran's project to infect the entire Middle East proceeds apace, and their deputy health minister has tested positive.
Iran's project to infect the entire Middle East proceeds apace, and their deputy health minister has tested positive.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Day 25: Just Saying No to Bats
The Daily Mail reports that China is turning its wildlife-eating ban permanent. PlagueBlog can only hope that it sticks. China also seems to have stopped reporting case numbers, making the worldwide stats rather inaccurate.
Monday, February 24, 2020
Day 24: Iran Makes China Look Good
Iran continues to make China look open and responsible; most Middle Eastern cases have already been traced back to Iran, and the AP reports on some fudgy numbers:
It's tough to top that one, but the WHO is trying; Reuters reports they no longer use the classification "pandemic". In other words, no pandemic for you!
In less laughable news, Italy reports 38 new cases, for a total of 223 cases with 7 deaths. (Some reports have 229 with 6 deaths.) South Korea is at 833 cases with 8 deaths.
In Germ Boat #2 news, a third passenger of the Diamond Princess died yesterday (an 80-year-old Japanese man), and the case count has risen to 691, apparently due at least in part to ongoing testing of the largely Filipino crew, though some ex-plague-ship cases that have been popping up post-evac may also have been counted.
The JHU CSSE app seems to be struggling under the load of cases today, so I've added another source of COVID-19 numbers the sidebar, BNO News.
P.S. A 900-point plunge in Dow futures has been attributed to coronavirus fears.
P.P.S. The worldwide case count has exceeded 80,000.
A staggering 50 people have died in the Iranian city of Qom from the new coronavirus this month, a lawmaker was quoted as saying on Monday, even as the Health Ministry insisted only 12 deaths have been recorded nationwide.Rumor has it that the Qom representative then left the parliament feeling ill and the staff sterilized his chair.
The new death toll reported by the Qom representative, Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani, is significantly higher than the 47 total cases of infections state TV had reported just hours earlier. Iran’s health ministry now says total infections have risen to 61, but a spokesman said deaths remained at 12.
Still, questions of transparency are being raised as the number of deaths compared to the number of confirmed infections from the virus is higher in Iran than in any other country, including China and South Korea, where the outbreak is far more widespread.
It's tough to top that one, but the WHO is trying; Reuters reports they no longer use the classification "pandemic". In other words, no pandemic for you!
In less laughable news, Italy reports 38 new cases, for a total of 223 cases with 7 deaths. (Some reports have 229 with 6 deaths.) South Korea is at 833 cases with 8 deaths.
In Germ Boat #2 news, a third passenger of the Diamond Princess died yesterday (an 80-year-old Japanese man), and the case count has risen to 691, apparently due at least in part to ongoing testing of the largely Filipino crew, though some ex-plague-ship cases that have been popping up post-evac may also have been counted.
The JHU CSSE app seems to be struggling under the load of cases today, so I've added another source of COVID-19 numbers the sidebar, BNO News.
P.S. A 900-point plunge in Dow futures has been attributed to coronavirus fears.
P.P.S. The worldwide case count has exceeded 80,000.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Day 23: Italy Takes the Lead
The AP reports that "coronavirus infections in Italy are now the largest outbreak outside Asia" (which isn't saying much) with 132 cases. More notably, Carnevale has been cancelled in Venice and schools shut down in Lombardy. As mentioned yesterday, these case remain untraced:
P.P.S. Iran has increased to 43 cases and 8 deaths. Several neighboring states have closed the border, and the government is already making noise about reducing New Year travel. (Nowruz, the Zoroastrian New Year, falls on the vernal equinox.)
Authorities expressed frustration they haven’t been able to track down the source of the virus spread in the north, which surfaced last week when an Italian man in Codogno in his late 30s became critically ill.Back in Asia, South Korea has firmed up its lead with 602 cases, while two young Chinese doctors have died in the past 24 hours. Reports continue to circulate about relapses; the South China Morning Post reports new quarantine restrictions for recovered patients:
“The health officials haven’t been yet able to pinpoint patient zero,” Angelo Borrelli, head of the national Civil Protection agency, told reporters in Rome.
At first, it was widely presumed that the man was infected by an Italian friend he dined with and who recently returned from his job, based in Shanghai. When the friend tested negative for the virus, attention turned to several Chinese people who live in town and who frequent the same cafe visited by the stricken man. But Lombardy Gov. Attilio Fontana told reporters all of those Chinese residents have tested negative, too.
The authorities in Wuhan on Saturday introduced 14 days’ mandatory quarantine for recovered coronavirus patients, after some discharged patients again tested positive.P.S. Bloomberg reports on the potential significance of the fecal-oral route.
From Saturday, all patients who had recovered and been discharged had to be sent to designated places for two weeks of quarantine and medical observation, the city’s coronavirus treatment and control command centre said on Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter.
P.P.S. Iran has increased to 43 cases and 8 deaths. Several neighboring states have closed the border, and the government is already making noise about reducing New Year travel. (Nowruz, the Zoroastrian New Year, falls on the vernal equinox.)
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Day 22: Untraceable Clusters
There are now 556 cases in South Korea and 79 in Italy. The AP reports on untraceable clusters in Singapore and Iran as well.
Business Insider has a nice writeup about asymptomatic spread in China.
Business Insider has a nice writeup about asymptomatic spread in China.
Friday, February 21, 2020
Day 21: Oh, Shi'ite
While the official count remains at 5, Reuters reports two more deaths and 13 more cases in Iran, for a total of 18 cases and four deaths. Coronavirus has spread from the Shi'ite "Vatican" of Qom to Tehran and several other cities. Reuters also reports an exported case from Iran is Lebanon's first case. Another exported case has appeared in British Columbia (Canada).
P.S. I forgot to mention the spike of 100 new cases in South Korea, which is now at 204 confirmed. Also, Israel has confirmed a case off the Diamond Princess. (It was otherwise a quiet day for Germ Boat #2.)
P.S. I forgot to mention the spike of 100 new cases in South Korea, which is now at 204 confirmed. Also, Israel has confirmed a case off the Diamond Princess. (It was otherwise a quiet day for Germ Boat #2.)
Thursday, February 20, 2020
Day 20: China Still Closed
Reuters reports that the closure of schools and non-essential businesses in Hubei has been extended from the original deadline of tomorrow to March 11th. Also, South Korea shoots up by 53 new cases to a total of 104, and has delayed school opening in Daegu. Iran has added 3 more confirmed cases.
In general the confirmed case counts seem to be falling, but this seems to be more an artifact of changed reporting standards in China than any real peak to the pandemic.
In a mixed day for Germ Boat #2, the Diamond Princess count went up only 13 cases to 634, but two of the infected passengers have now died.
P.S. China has hit 75,000 cases.
In general the confirmed case counts seem to be falling, but this seems to be more an artifact of changed reporting standards in China than any real peak to the pandemic.
In a mixed day for Germ Boat #2, the Diamond Princess count went up only 13 cases to 634, but two of the infected passengers have now died.
P.S. China has hit 75,000 cases.
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Day 19: Bigger and Germier
The numbers hit over 75,000 cases, 2,000 deaths, and 15,000 recovered today. A new country has reported cases, Iran with 2 confirmed cases in Qom and apparently more suspected. South Korea reports 20 more cases in one day, most related to a super-spreader at a church, for a total of 51. Japan's count for the day is at 10 and still climbing. I've seen some reports that today's count includes an Okinawa taxi driver who drove passengers from Germ Boat #2 (the Diamond Princess) at their previous port of call (Naha), but this particular case seems to have been confirmed last week. It remains unclear whether the passengers infected the driver or vice versa.
Germ Boat #2 has 79 more cases, bringing the total to 621. The Irish Examiner reports that, in addition to his SARS-CoV-2 infection and Type II diabetes, Germ Boat celebrity David Abel also suffers from early-onset dementia (which, along with an initial diagnosis by a Japanese-speaking doctor, explains some confusion in the reporting of his case). But the food tweeter tweets on about the ongoing evacuations.
BBC News reports (in Chinese) on a postulated Patient Zero in his seventies who lived near the suspect wet market, but was already ill and did not actually visit the market before becoming sick(er) around December 1st.
P.S. Reuters reports that the two Iranian patients have already died.
Germ Boat #2 has 79 more cases, bringing the total to 621. The Irish Examiner reports that, in addition to his SARS-CoV-2 infection and Type II diabetes, Germ Boat celebrity David Abel also suffers from early-onset dementia (which, along with an initial diagnosis by a Japanese-speaking doctor, explains some confusion in the reporting of his case). But the food tweeter tweets on about the ongoing evacuations.
BBC News reports (in Chinese) on a postulated Patient Zero in his seventies who lived near the suspect wet market, but was already ill and did not actually visit the market before becoming sick(er) around December 1st.
P.S. Reuters reports that the two Iranian patients have already died.
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Day 18: The Germ Boat Dives Deeper
The Diamond Princess (Germ Boat #2) has jumped another 88 cases, to 542 cases. The food tweeter seems to be tweeting on, but another celebrity passenger, David Abel, and his wife have tested positive. The Daily Mail reports that the airlift has been cut short and a hundred Germ Boat Americans still in Japan will need to remain their for their quarantine period (an additional 14 days).
P.S. The COVID-19 death toll has now exceeded 2,000.
P.S. The COVID-19 death toll has now exceeded 2,000.
Interlude: What Killed the Wampanoag
This is an accidental interlude in the coronavirus news inspired by Taki Magazine columnist David Cole, who has paused his extremely spicy politico-disease commentary (e.g., Crazy Rich Asians Will Kill Us All) to reflect on the far older epidemiological mystery of what killed the natives of New England four centuries ago now. Cole cites a Slate article making seasonal hay of the story circa Thanksgiving 2012:
In defense of the natives contra Cole, PlagueBlog notes that though they eschewed hard-soled shoes, they did bathe far more than the invaders; this otherwise laudable practice was just as likely to give them a cryptic disease invisibly imported into their "sweet brook" as was their semi-shoelessness. It was a lose-lose situation, and not an appropriate metaphor for dangerous modern-day African or Asian superstitions.
The Pilgrim leader William Bradford was already aware of the death toll from “Indean fever.” His scouts had ventured inland and noted “sculs and bones were found in many places lying still above ground, where their houses and dwellings had been; a very sad spectackle to behould.” It’s estimated as many as nine out of 10 coastal Indians were killed in the epidemic between 1616 and 1619.That "recent analysis" had been published in the CDC's monthly journal in February of 2010; it postulates "incremental, episodic, and continuous" exposure to leptospirosis introduced by Old World Rattus rattus as the most likely source of the deadly epidemic. PlagueBlog regrets having overlooked the theory at the time, but 2010 was a busy year of crazy Asians killing one another with melamine, and the mainstream press also seems to have missed it.
What killed so many people so quickly? The symptoms were a yellowing of the skin, pain and cramping, and profuse bleeding, especially from the nose. A recent analysis concludes the culprit was a disease called leptospirosis, caused by leptospira bacteria. Spread by rat urine.
In defense of the natives contra Cole, PlagueBlog notes that though they eschewed hard-soled shoes, they did bathe far more than the invaders; this otherwise laudable practice was just as likely to give them a cryptic disease invisibly imported into their "sweet brook" as was their semi-shoelessness. It was a lose-lose situation, and not an appropriate metaphor for dangerous modern-day African or Asian superstitions.
Monday, February 17, 2020
Day 17: The Germ Boats Take Flight
The New York Post reports 99 new cases aboard Germ Boat #2, the Diamond Princess, for a total of 454. The jump seems to be due to testing of asymptomatic passengers for the sake of evacuation; some American cases were confirmed during the evac flight(s). (The food tweeter remained aboard and tweets on.)
The AP reports more details about Germ Boat #4, the MS Westerdam:
The AP reports more details about Germ Boat #4, the MS Westerdam:
News over the weekend that an 83-year-old American woman who was on the ship and flew from Cambodia to Malaysia was found to be carrying the virus froze further movement of the passengers and crew of the MS Westerdam. Some are now in hotels in Cambodia’s capital, Phnom Penh, while others are still aboard the ship.P.S. People's Daily (China) reports the death of Liu Zhiming, director of Wuhan Wuchang Hospital and the first hospital director to die of COVID-19.
The American woman was among several hundred passengers who were flown out of Cambodia on Friday and Saturday. According to authorities in Malaysia, 143 continued their flights home from that country, while the woman and her 84-year-old husband, who was diagnosed with pneumonia, remained behind for treatment.
Sunday, February 16, 2020
Day 16: The Germ Boats Strike Again
CNN reports that the US is planning to evacuate passengers from Germ Boat #2, the Diamond Princess. The current case count is 356, perhaps because at least one "quarantine worker” was infected, not to mention that
P.S. The confirmed case count has now exceeded 71,000.
[...] some 1,000 crew on board the ship had not been kept in quarantine, eating meals together with masks off and working side by side.Also, the Washington Post reports that an 83-year-old American off the MS Westerdam who flew to Malaysia after disembarking and being cleared in Cambodia has now been diagnosed, calling into question the entire now-dispersed passenger complement of Germ Boat #4.
P.S. The confirmed case count has now exceeded 71,000.
Friday, February 14, 2020
Day 14: Nosocomial Infections Day
Via Xinhua: China has reported a COVID-19 case count of 1716 among health care workers, including six deaths so far.
Kyodo News reports a farmer has tested positive for COVID-19 in Wakayama Prefecture (Japan). He had visited the hospital where the surgeon who was confirmed infected yesterday practiced; however, he had symptoms before he visited the hospital. The surgeon himself still has no known Chinese contacts, and another doctor and patient there have also come down with pneumonia and are being screened.
Nikkei reports a general pattern of Japanese cases that have not been traced back to China yet, including Japan's first death, an 80-year-old Kanagawa Prefecture woman, her son-in-law who is also infected, a confirmed case in Chiba Prefecture, and the Tokyo taxi driver who, despite rumors to the contrary, did not recall transporting any foreign passengers.
On the lighter side, CNN reports on a crafty Russian woman who escaped quarantine in St. Petersburg by short-circuiting the lock on her hospital room. She had tested negative several times and her 14-day quarantine period was up, so it's unclear why she felt the need to break out, or why the government feels the need to prosecute her.
P.S. The Straits Times reports that an anaesthesiologist is Singapore's first healthcare worker to be diagnosed with COVID-19:
Kyodo News reports a farmer has tested positive for COVID-19 in Wakayama Prefecture (Japan). He had visited the hospital where the surgeon who was confirmed infected yesterday practiced; however, he had symptoms before he visited the hospital. The surgeon himself still has no known Chinese contacts, and another doctor and patient there have also come down with pneumonia and are being screened.
Nikkei reports a general pattern of Japanese cases that have not been traced back to China yet, including Japan's first death, an 80-year-old Kanagawa Prefecture woman, her son-in-law who is also infected, a confirmed case in Chiba Prefecture, and the Tokyo taxi driver who, despite rumors to the contrary, did not recall transporting any foreign passengers.
On the lighter side, CNN reports on a crafty Russian woman who escaped quarantine in St. Petersburg by short-circuiting the lock on her hospital room. She had tested negative several times and her 14-day quarantine period was up, so it's unclear why she felt the need to break out, or why the government feels the need to prosecute her.
P.S. The Straits Times reports that an anaesthesiologist is Singapore's first healthcare worker to be diagnosed with COVID-19:
The day before he had a fever, the general anaesthesiologist was working in an operating theatre and was feeling perfectly well.
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Day 13: Germ Boat #5
The AIDA Cruises ship AIDAvita, under an Italian flag but owned by a German company and apparently full of Germans, started out of Bali on January 17th, but has been denied docking at its next Vietnamese port. (This is the fifth cruise ship to appear in the epidemic news.)
Stories about the AIDAvita tend to also report that Germ Boat #4, the MS Westerdam, expected to dock in Thailand when last PlagueBlog reported on it, actually docked in Preah Sihanouk, Cambodia today.
Reuters reports that Singapore is still looking for their "patient zero" who brought COVID-19 to a conference there, eventually infecting Malaysia and Europe.
Reuters also reports a confirmed case in a Tokyo taxi driver in his 70's, as well as a doctor in central Japan. On the bright side, Japan intends to start letting elderly and interior passengers of Germ Boat #2, the Diamond Princess, come ashore beginning tomorrow to complete their quarantine on dry land.
A second evacuee case has been confirmed in San Diego, bringing the US total to 14.
P.S. A third evacuee case has been confirmed at Lackland AFB in Texas, bringing the US total to 15.
Stories about the AIDAvita tend to also report that Germ Boat #4, the MS Westerdam, expected to dock in Thailand when last PlagueBlog reported on it, actually docked in Preah Sihanouk, Cambodia today.
Reuters reports that Singapore is still looking for their "patient zero" who brought COVID-19 to a conference there, eventually infecting Malaysia and Europe.
Reuters also reports a confirmed case in a Tokyo taxi driver in his 70's, as well as a doctor in central Japan. On the bright side, Japan intends to start letting elderly and interior passengers of Germ Boat #2, the Diamond Princess, come ashore beginning tomorrow to complete their quarantine on dry land.
A second evacuee case has been confirmed in San Diego, bringing the US total to 14.
P.S. A third evacuee case has been confirmed at Lackland AFB in Texas, bringing the US total to 15.
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Day 12: One Bad Bug, Two Bad Names
PlagueBlog apologizes for misreporting the naming of SARS-CoV-2 as COVID-19. In fact, the virus is now officially named SARS-CoV-2, and the disease it causes is now officially named COVID-19. PlagueBlog prefers the Internet's names (#RatBatVirus and Wuhan Disease), but you can't win them all.
In a surprise move, and despite rumors that China would no longer be reporting asymptomatic confirmed cases, Hubei has reported almost 15,000 new cases, pushing the world total over 60,000.
CNN explains the details of the strange focus on dry traps as a COVID-19 vector in Hong Kong, although the reason some Hong Kong residents hack their own toilet pipes remains unexplained.
P.S. On the bright side, there are now over 6,000 recovered.
P.P.S. In Japan, where it's tomorrow (Thursday) already, Forbes reports that the Germ Boat case count has jumped again to 218. Yet the food tweeter tweets on.
In a surprise move, and despite rumors that China would no longer be reporting asymptomatic confirmed cases, Hubei has reported almost 15,000 new cases, pushing the world total over 60,000.
CNN explains the details of the strange focus on dry traps as a COVID-19 vector in Hong Kong, although the reason some Hong Kong residents hack their own toilet pipes remains unexplained.
P.S. On the bright side, there are now over 6,000 recovered.
P.P.S. In Japan, where it's tomorrow (Thursday) already, Forbes reports that the Germ Boat case count has jumped again to 218. Yet the food tweeter tweets on.
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
Day 11: The First and Fourth Germ Boats
For those playing the home game, the first germ boat was the World Dream, on a five-day cruise starting January 19th from Guangzhou to Vietnam to Hong Kong. Eventually eight cases were identified from this cruise, and as a consequence a later batch of tourists have been quarantined off Hong Kong out of concern that the crew may have been infected. Those 3,600 passengers were just released on Sunday, despite not having completed fourteen days of quarantine (because the crew were cleared).
The second germ boat is the Diamond Princess, quarantined for an ever-restarting 14 days off Yokohama, where the food tweeter tweets on.
The third germ boat was the Anthem of the Seas out of Bayonne, NJ, which had no actual cases.
The fourth germ boat is the Holland America ship the MS Westerdam, originally meant to dock in Yokohama on Valentine's Day (this coming Friday).
PlagueBlog prefers the term "germ boat", though, in deference to common parlance, germ boat posts have been tagged "plague ships".
In other coronavirus news, a lucky thirteenth case has been confirmed in the US: an evacuee in San Diego who, despite testing positive, was initially released by the CDC intothe wild quarantine quarters, but has since been returned to hospital.
P.S. The WHO has finally named the virus "COVID-19". While we understand that "Please stop eating the bats already, folks" was not an option, PlagueBlog maintains that "Wuhan coronavirus" could hardly do Wuhan's reputation or China's face any additional damage at this point. You'd have to go with something like "Wenliang coronavirus" to manage that.
P.P.S. COVID-19 celebrated its new name with a record 45,000 cases, as well as an additional 39 cases on the Germ Boat (for a total of 174 cases, but the food tweeter tweets on).
The second germ boat is the Diamond Princess, quarantined for an ever-restarting 14 days off Yokohama, where the food tweeter tweets on.
The third germ boat was the Anthem of the Seas out of Bayonne, NJ, which had no actual cases.
The fourth germ boat is the Holland America ship the MS Westerdam, originally meant to dock in Yokohama on Valentine's Day (this coming Friday).
According to passengers on board, they’ve been denied at “every port” since leaving Hong Kong in early February.Fox reports that, fortunately for them, Thailand has agreed to let them dock in Laem Chabang on Thursday.
PlagueBlog prefers the term "germ boat", though, in deference to common parlance, germ boat posts have been tagged "plague ships".
In other coronavirus news, a lucky thirteenth case has been confirmed in the US: an evacuee in San Diego who, despite testing positive, was initially released by the CDC into
P.S. The WHO has finally named the virus "COVID-19". While we understand that "Please stop eating the bats already, folks" was not an option, PlagueBlog maintains that "Wuhan coronavirus" could hardly do Wuhan's reputation or China's face any additional damage at this point. You'd have to go with something like "Wenliang coronavirus" to manage that.
P.P.S. COVID-19 celebrated its new name with a record 45,000 cases, as well as an additional 39 cases on the Germ Boat (for a total of 174 cases, but the food tweeter tweets on).
Monday, February 10, 2020
Day 10: Not Our Brighton
The Argus reports that a medical center in Brighton, England has closed due to a GP being confirmed to have coronavirus. He was apparently part of the ski cluster and caught it in France, despite being from the same part of England as the postulated super-spreader from Hove. The claim is that the GP only went in to work at the medical center for one day, during which he did paperwork and saw no patients.
The pangolin theory has reached Nature.
Caixin Global reported Saturday that the nucleic acid test (NAT) for coronavirus has a high false negative rate. (NAT is the cheaper, more convenient test.)
The pangolin theory has reached Nature.
Caixin Global reported Saturday that the nucleic acid test (NAT) for coronavirus has a high false negative rate. (NAT is the cheaper, more convenient test.)
In a Wednesday interview with state broadcaster CCTV, Wang Chen, an expert in critical diseases and director of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said one characteristic of the virus was that "not all of those infected by it return positive NATs."Genetic testing is more accurate but more expensive and not available everywhere. This has led to some changes in the official diagnostic criteria:
"Even patients who definitely have the disease only come back positive 30%-50% of the time," Wang said.
[...]
A doctor in the imaging department of another major Wuhan hospital, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Caixin said that previously some patients whose CT scans clearly showed signs of viral infection but whose NATs tested negative were "released" back into their communities due to a shortage of hospital berths.
In response to calls from medical professionals on the frontlines of the epidemic, the NHC on Tuesday relaxed the clinical criteria for reporting suspected coronavirus cases, with extra leeway granted to people in Hubei. Outside the stricken province, medical professionals should now suspect coronavirus infection in patients with radiographic evidence of pneumonia, fever, and/or breathing problems, and a low-to-normal white blood cell count or a low lymphocyte count. Within Hubei, only 2 of the 3 criteria are required.P.S. Later in the day, cases exceeded 43,000, deaths exceeded 1,000, and confirmed cases aboard the Germ Boat rose to 135, among them 10 crew (though the food tweeter tweets on).
Sunday, February 09, 2020
Day 9: The Real Numbers
Via ProMED-mail: In the Swiss Medical Weekly, researchers estimate the real case and fatality numbers based on various possible rates of misreporting, underreporting, and overreporting (of both cases and deaths). While a good overview of the possible sources of error, the math itself seems less useful.
The five British cases in the French ski chalet were infected by a sixth Brit who brought the disease back from Singapore, another case of country-to-country-to-country transmission of Wuhan coronavirus.
The Washington Post reports that "lawyer and citizen journalist" Chen Qiushi who had been reporting on the epidemic from Wuhan has been missing since Thursday. The Chinese government claims to have him in quarantine, where PlagueBlog hopes he will receive better care than Li Wenliang.
Citizens of Hong Kong are encouraged to keep their drain traps wet and put down the toilet seat before flushing, as well as to practice more obvious hygienic precautions. PlagueBlog hopes they will take the advice to avoid wet markets to heart.
The South China Morning Post also reports that a 7-year-old Hong Kong boy has been diagnosed with an "imported" case of H9 (subtype unspecified) bird flu (emphasis added):
The five British cases in the French ski chalet were infected by a sixth Brit who brought the disease back from Singapore, another case of country-to-country-to-country transmission of Wuhan coronavirus.
The Washington Post reports that "lawyer and citizen journalist" Chen Qiushi who had been reporting on the epidemic from Wuhan has been missing since Thursday. The Chinese government claims to have him in quarantine, where PlagueBlog hopes he will receive better care than Li Wenliang.
Citizens of Hong Kong are encouraged to keep their drain traps wet and put down the toilet seat before flushing, as well as to practice more obvious hygienic precautions. PlagueBlog hopes they will take the advice to avoid wet markets to heart.
The South China Morning Post also reports that a 7-year-old Hong Kong boy has been diagnosed with an "imported" case of H9 (subtype unspecified) bird flu (emphasis added):
According to the centre's preliminary investigations, the patient had visited his grandparents' home in Shenzhen at the incubation stage of his viral infection. Although the family kept poultry in their house, the boy had not come into direct contact with the birds. His family members have not reported any symptoms.P.S. Cases exceeded 40,000 by the end of the day, and cases aboard the quarantined cruise ship reached 70 (though the food tweeter tweets on). Cases in Singapore reached 40 and the French chalet ex-Singapore cluster also continues to grow.
Saturday, February 08, 2020
Day 8: Death Toll Exceeds SARS
The death toll from novel coronavirus exceeded that of SARS (774) earlier today and as of this typing stands at 813. Also, a Chinese-American man died in Wuhan earlier this week but the news only broke today. The case count is at 37,525.
Aboard the Germ Boat, three new cases have been reported in the Japanese press but haven't been added to the official Others numbers yet. Li Wenliang's death yesterday continues to spark controversy.
The rumored unusual susceptibility of East Asian males to Wuhan coronavirus (which seems to be what the cool kids are calling it) and SARS actually does have a scientific explanation, the ACE2 virus receptor.
Aboard the Germ Boat, three new cases have been reported in the Japanese press but haven't been added to the official Others numbers yet. Li Wenliang's death yesterday continues to spark controversy.
The rumored unusual susceptibility of East Asian males to Wuhan coronavirus (which seems to be what the cool kids are calling it) and SARS actually does have a scientific explanation, the ACE2 virus receptor.
Friday, February 07, 2020
Day 7: The Germ Boat Enters International Waters
I reported the sharp jump in Japanese cases yesterday, but today Japan dropped back down to 25 patients, while the 61 unfortunate cruise ship passengers off Yokohama became their own category, Others, in the coronavirus app.
If you prefer your news in video form, the US Department of Health held a press conference today.
P.S. USA Today reports that a third suspected germ ship, Royal Caribbean's Anthem of the Seas out of Bayonne, NJ, has been cleared of any infection.
P.P.S. RIP Li Wenliang.
If you prefer your news in video form, the US Department of Health held a press conference today.
P.S. USA Today reports that a third suspected germ ship, Royal Caribbean's Anthem of the Seas out of Bayonne, NJ, has been cleared of any infection.
P.P.S. RIP Li Wenliang.
Thursday, February 06, 2020
Day 6: 30,000 and Rising
As of this typing, the confirmed case count is 31,472, with 638 deaths and 1,551 recovered. Japan's count has shot up to 86.
Wednesday, February 05, 2020
Day 5: In the Gray Zone
According to the WHO (via CNN), the ongoing coronavirus epidemic is not a pandemic:
P.P.S. Reuters reports that ten more passengers aboard the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship currently quarantined off Yokohama, have tested positive for novel coronavirus.
"We are not in a pandemic," Dr. Sylvie Briand, director of the World Health Organization's Infectious Hazards Management Department said in a press conference on Tuesday, explaining that the virus is currently considered to be an epidemic with multiple locations.Not everyone agrees, however:
"We will try to extinguish the transmission in each of these," she said, adding that the agency believes this "can be done with containment measures currently in place."
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease in the United States, believes we could be heading toward a pandemic.One important bit of daily evolution is how the disease made its way through Singapore into Malaysia (via MalayMail) last month:
"My bottom line is the way this is continuing to evolve every day, it looks like it's heading towards what we would call a pandemic," Fauci said.
But Fauci also said the term itself comes down to semantics -- it "means different things to different people," and that we're in a "gray zone."
A Malaysian man has tested positive for the Wuhan virus, the first local to date, said Health Minister Datuk Seri Dzulkefly Ahmad at a press conference today.P.S. The United Press reports a twelfth US case in Wisconsin (ex China).
Dzulkefly said the man travelled to Singapore from January 16 to 23 to attend a meeting which had several foreign delegates, including from China.
“He returned to Malaysia on January 23, and on January 29, he received treatment at a private hospital because of fever and cough.
P.P.S. Reuters reports that ten more passengers aboard the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship currently quarantined off Yokohama, have tested positive for novel coronavirus.
Tuesday, February 04, 2020
Day 4: The Germ Boats
Remember when norovirus was the biggest risk of taking a cruise? Well, now it's novel coronavirus. The South China Morning Post reports that 4000 passengers on a five-day cruise from Guangzhou to Vietnam to Hong Kong may have been exposed. Three cases are already known (though only one is officially confirmed) and two more are suspected.
P.P.S. Another cruise ship story broke later in the day: Princess Cruises quarantines 3,700 on the Diamond Princess out of Yokohama, Japan after ten passengers tested positive.
“There was a clear risk of cross-contagion on board the cruise ship,” said the doctor, who declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to the media. But the doctor said she decided to disclose the information out of concern that thousands of passengers from the same cruise were at large, even though it has not been confirmed that there was an outbreak on board.P.S. The suspected NYC case is still not confirmed. You can keep an eye out for it at the live Johns Hopkins CSSE site (or the mobile version).
P.P.S. Another cruise ship story broke later in the day: Princess Cruises quarantines 3,700 on the Diamond Princess out of Yokohama, Japan after ten passengers tested positive.
The company confirmed to CNBC that one of the passengers who tested positive for the coronavirus is from the United States. The others are two passengers from Australia, three from Japan and three from Hong Kong and one Filipino crew member.
The company said it will continue to provide guests with complimentary internet and phone service. The ship will go out to sea to “perform normal marine operations,” the company said, such as “the production of fresh water and ballast operations before proceeding alongside in Yokohama where food, provisions, and other supplies will be brought onboard.”
Sunday, February 02, 2020
Boston Day 2 (NYC Day 1)
According to MSN (via ProMED), our Boston patient has recovered and is voluntarily quarantined at home. Oh, and there's a suspected case in NYC.
Yesterday r/askscience on Reddit had an AMA (ask me anything) "about the novel coronavirus". (I'm hoping the WHO comes out with a handier name than 2019-nCoV soon.) In that haystack I found links to nice infographics at the New York Times.
Yesterday r/askscience on Reddit had an AMA (ask me anything) "about the novel coronavirus". (I'm hoping the WHO comes out with a handier name than 2019-nCoV soon.) In that haystack I found links to nice infographics at the New York Times.
Saturday, February 01, 2020
The bats come home to roost
One of many rumors about novel coronavirus involves bats as snacks. Various vaguely described birds and "wild animals" from the epicentric "seafood" market have tested positive, though others have cleared the market of guilt on account of earlier patients who hadn't been there.
But my bigger concern right now is the nascent epidemic's sudden appearance just down the road:
But my bigger concern right now is the nascent epidemic's sudden appearance just down the road:
A man in his 20s has the first case of coronavirus in Massachusetts, the Boston Public Health Commission announced Saturday. The man attends UMass Boston and lives in the city. He returned from Wuhan, China on Jan. 28 through Logan Airport.
He is being isolated at his home, which is not a dorm, and health officials say he is doing well.
Friday, May 20, 2016
DFTD2: The Sequel
Tasmanian devil disease recently got curiouser when a graduate student identified a second cell line:
In March 2014, Murchison’s colleague Ruth Pye, a graduate student at the University of Tasmania, noticed something weird about a facial tumor taken from a devil captured just north of Hobart. Physically, it looked like DFTD; genetically, it was clearly something different. For example, DFTD cells have lost their X and Y sex chromosomes, both of which were present in the new tumor. Pye reasoned that this particular devil had spontaneously developed its own type of facial tumor that looked like DFTD, but wasn’t. It was a one-off.They've found a total of eight infected devils and published their results this January.
Except, a few months later, she found the same genetically distinct tumor in a second devil from the same area. In both cases, the tumors bore absolutely no genetic resemblance to either DFTD or their respective hosts. These devils had developed a second type of contagious cancer.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
The Bubonic Plague of Justinian
In The Guardian and elsewhere: a new journal article in the Lancet identifies the sixth-century Plague of Justinian as Yersinia pestis.
Professor Edward Holmes, from the University of Sydney, was one of the authors of the study, and said it was the oldest pathogen ever sequenced.
"This is the first complete genome from one of the most significant disease events in human history," he said.
The results showed the strains from the plague victims were distinct from those involved in the Black Death, the later pandemic which killed an estimated 60% of the European population.
The Justinianic strains appear to be an evolutionary “dead end” when compared with modern strains, and most likely originated from Asia and then spread to Europe along trade routes such as the Silk Road.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)