Friday, March 13, 2020

Day 42: Fly Now or Forever Shelter in Place

Today's numbers (according to BNO) have exceeded 138,000 cases, 5,000 dead, and 70,000 recovered. Italy has exceeded 15,000 cases and 1,000 dead. Iran is over 11,000 cases and 500 dead. South Korea, the new social distancing capital of the world, has kept their numbers under 8,000 cases, with only 67 dead. Spain is over 4,200 with 120 deaths, while France and Germany are hovering around 3,000 cases.

The US is next up, with 1,832 cases and 41 deaths. (The new deaths appear to have occurred in Washington State, though the CDC hasn't recognized them yet.) No other countries have hit 1,000 yet besides China, whose new case counts have become negligible, though Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries are getting close.

Our World in Data is tracking doubling times, though they only have them listed for EOD Wednesday right now [updated since to Thursday, with cool new graphs], when the US and Spain were at 2 days and Denmark at 1 day to double the number of cases.

Portugal provides a handy map of cases, divided into the usual Norte/Centro/Lisboa/Alentejo/Algarve/Açores/Madeira divisions (except with a rather outsized notion of Lisboa compared to the usual one), along with a chart of symptom onset dates. For confirmed cases, age and sex, number hospitalized, and symptoms are summarized. The rates of symptoms (translated for your convenience) are:
CoughFeverDifficulty BreathingHeadacheMuscle PainWeakness
65%46%10%37%40%24%

Today is your last chance to fly home to the US from the Schengen area of Europe (i.e., most continental EU countries and some non-EU states with open borders) before Trump's travel ban goes into effect. Forty-eight hours may not sound like much notice compared to the week most closing colleges and universities have given their students to bug out, but it's still generous compared to yesterday's events at CCSU. At 11:00am, in reaction to a student who was a mere contact of a mere suspected case (later proved negative), the President of Connecticut Central State University tossed everyone out immediately. A later update indicates that the residence halls aren't closing until this afternoon (though where the residents were supposed to be in the meantime remains unclear).

New York has opened a drive-through testing facility in New Rochelle which can handle up to 200 cases a day (though perhaps erev Shabbat is not the best time to do so, considering the demographics of that outbreak). The Miami Herald reports that Francis Suarez the mayor of Miami, has tested positive, "four days after the mayor attended a Miami event with a Brazilian government official who later tested positive for the virus." President Bolsonaro was allegedly exposed, and later met with President Trump.

Plague Ships: The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare reports another case off of Germ Boat #2; one asymptomatic crew member of the Diamond Princess tested positive upon release from quarantine and was sent to hospital. This brings the case count up to 697.

We have a Germ Boat #12, a Viking Cruise Journey riverboat, the RV Bassac Pandaw, with a capacity of 60 passengers. VOA Cambodia reports that one out of five passengers tested positive on Tuesday after Vietnamese authorities alerted Cambodian authorities of a case on their flight from London to Hanoi. Subsequently the remaining 59 passengers [sic] were tested and two more positive cases were found, for a total of three. (The five mentioned in the headline is the total across Cambodia.)

Business Insider reports that Viking Cruises has since suspended operations, and the Washington Post reports (behind a paywall) that Disney has as well. Once again #12 may be the last germ boat, though PlagueBlog suspects otherwise.

Local cancellations: Universal Hub reports that nine local Orthodox Jewish congregations (though that's not nearly all of them) have suspended services starting immediately.

P.S. The President declared a national emergency at a White House presser this afternoon, during which far too many important American health care industry executives (including one from Quest) got far too close to the possibly-exposed President. During questioning he mentioned that Bolsonaro has tested negative (though his wife tested positive), but PlagueBlog doubts the negative result can be relied upon so early on.

P.P.S. Massachusetts' numbers for today are 123 cases (15 over yesterday), with 94 connected to Biogen and 16 not yet connected to Biogen ("under investigation"). The Berkshire cluster and travel numbers are unchanged.

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