Day 574: Kids Still Unaffected

Despite some hand-wringing at The Atlantic, children remain statistically unaffected by COVID. Emily Oster (perhaps best known for Cribsheet: A Data-Driven Guide to Better, More Relaxed Parenting, from Birth to Preschool) has been blogging about the data to the end of reassuring freaked-out parents. As of her latest post, COVID is still barely even the flu for children:

The million dollar question: Does Delta change this? It is not completely clear. People, including the CDC Director, have cited more hospitalizations among children in heavily affected areas as evidence that Delta might be worse for kids. However, with more cases, we expect more hospitalizations. We saw this rise in pediatric hospitalizations last winter, as well, without Delta. Seeing more cases is different from saying that delta increases the hospitalization rate. There is also an increase in RSV in young children in many of the same areas COVID is spreading widely, complicating the analysis.

I would argue, though, that what we do know suggests the risks are in the same range. That the narrative that this is a new virus which is tremendously more dangerous for children is just simply not supported by the data.

Massachusetts cases were up a quarter of a percentage point yesterday, our biggest one-day jump since mid-April.