Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Day 432: The Brazilian Variant

The world is at 133 million total COVID-19 cases, with 31.5 million in the US, slightly over 13 million in Brazil, and slightly under 13 million in India. The rest of the top 10 countries have between 3 and 5 million cases each. China is currently #92, between Ghana, a nation of 31.6 million souls, and Kyrgyzstan, a nation of 6.6 million souls.

Massachusetts is at #15 among the states and is approaching 650,000 total cases. Despite ongoing hand-wringing over minor fluctuations in our case counts, the daily increase has remained well under half a percent since the holiday peak died down in early February. Yesterday, for example, was up only a quarter of a percent.

We do continue to lag in vaccination of young people (having only started the 55+ cohort this week) but our coverage in absolute doses is good, probably due to a combination of an older population and high uptake. We're also getting a bonus batch of vaccine this week. Barnstable County leads the Commonwealth in vaccinations, and it's a good thing because the P.1 variant on the Cape has given us the dubious title of the state with the most cases of the Brazilian variant.

P.S. More on P.1 from the Virological forum:
The detection of over 50 cases of the P.1 variant, a VoC that has been associated with increased transmissibility and reinfection, in less than a month in MA is concerning.

That many of these genomes appear to reflect multiple independent introductions of P.1 into New England, and transportation of this variant between several US states, points to likely widespread circulation of this VoC across the country. While our understanding of the increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant is still unfolding, the large cluster of identical and nearly identical genomes–a pattern of genetic diversity consistent with superspreading-- highlights the ongoing risk of rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, and in particular for more transmissible lineages. The extent of community transmission of P.1 in Massachusetts and across the US is currently unknown, however, it is likely that the P.1 variant is already or will soon be circulating in communities and ongoing surveillance will be critical to understanding the trajectory and impact of the P.1 variant.
P.P.S. Massachusetts cases were up two fifths of a percentage point today.

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