The mainstream news of the day seems to be the New York Times' sketchy take on a study out of South Korea, in which the Korean scientists were careful to state that they did not determine the direction of transmission, or even that transmission was familial at all. Nevertheless, the Times jumps to the conclusion that children aged 10 and up can transmit the disease as well as adults. Just one of those coronavirus "facts" you'll probably need to conveniently forget later...
The interesting news of the day, however, is a commentary in Independent Science News on the lab origin theory of the current pandemic. PlagueBlog readers may recall previous made-in-a-lab theories involving the mysterious coronavirus sequence known as RaTG13, and Dr. Shi of the suspiciously-located Wuhan Institute of Virology. This theory differs on a few points. It accepts RaTG13 as a genuine, natural coronavirus, spends a good deal of time debunking the opposition (an oft-cited review in Nature from March), and tells a new story about COVID-"19" in which it is actually COVID-12:
The story begins in April 2012 when six workers in that same Mojiang mine fell ill from a mystery illness while removing bat faeces. Three of the six subsequently died.The authors had the thesis translated, from which it became clear the miners suffered from a disease very similar to COVID-19, and not from fungal infection. In fact their doctors consulted with China's expert on SARS and sent samples to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, from which (they hypothesize) the virus later escaped.
In a March 2020 interview with Scientific American Zeng-li Shi dismissed the significance of these deaths, claiming the miners died of fungal infections. Indeed, no miners or deaths are mentioned in the paper published by the Shi lab documenting the collection of RaTG13 (Ge et al., 2016).
But Shi’s assessment does not tally with any other contemporaneous accounts of the miners and their illness (Rahalkar and Bahulikar, 2020). [...]
Fortunately, a detailed account of the miner’s diagnoses and treatments exists. It is found in a Master’s thesis written in Chinese in May 2013. Its suggestive English title is “The Analysis of 6 Patients with Severe Pneumonia Caused by Unknown viruses“.
The flurry of virus-hunting behavior in the mine by Dr. Shi and others after the miners fell ill is thus deeply suspicious, as is their publication of RaTG13 and a prior subsequence without any comment on the miners or their disease, instead asserting that the distant Yunnan province mine where they collected their samples was "abandoned".
To account for the differences between RaTG13 and its closest coronaviral relative, SARS-CoV-2, the authors propose viral evolution within the six miners as their "Mojiang Miners Passage (MMP) hypothesis". Specifically, the virus evolved in their lungs, an unusual locus of coronavirus infection (at the time) that they believe was particularly conducive to the recombination of RaTG13 and other coronaviruses from the mine into SARS-CoV-2.
They also posit an explanation for the long delay between COVID-12 and COVID-19:
Our supposition as to why there was a time lag between sample collection (in 2012/2013) and the COVID-19 outbreak is that the researchers were awaiting BSL-4 lab construction and certification, which was underway in 2013 but delayed until 2018.In conclusion, they call for an independent investigation of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, as well as of the "conflicts of interest" they see as suppressing the escaped-from-a-lab hypothesis.
We propose that, when frozen samples derived from the miners were eventually opened in the Wuhan lab they were already highly adapted to humans to an extent possibly not anticipated by the researchers. One small mistake or mechanical breakdown could have led directly to the first human infection in late 2019.
PlagueBlog notes there is something off about the notion that six miners breathing bat guano could substitute for the missing human evolution phase of SARS-CoV-2 that has made it so stable since. It is particularly mysterious how all six of them fell so ill at the same time, and yet the mine has failed to start the number of pandemics this rate of attack would seem to promise. Bats are not known for flying about in tiny masks, so perhaps the mine workers themselves did something unusually unsanitary. They were allegedly cleaning out bat guano at the time they fell ill, which doesn't seem like the most productive or typical miner employment.
PlagueBlog recommends that, when you see a bat, you run screaming in the other direction. (A mask should not be worn for this purpose, as it impedes proper screaming.) In particular, do not gather or eat its guano for any reason whatsoever.
1 comment:
Someone at work fisked the New York Times article pretty thoroughly. Also, it's the New York Times so it doesn't have the best rep for being accurate. Or factual. Or, you know, in this reality!
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