RAND, however, does not leave the exercise to the reader. They estimate 37 times more cases in China than the official numbers, based on spread through air travel in early January. In other bad news for China, Beijing is up to 227 cases in their current outbreak, and a Chinese study has found some indications that antibodies to the milder Chinese coronavirus strain may not be effective against the European mutation known as D614G currently spreading in Beijing.
A interesting comment in Nature speculates that young and even middle-aged victims of severe COVID-19 may have succumbed due to genetic mutations to their immune systems. They go over some other possibilities as well.
On the mask front, Johns Hopkins has recommended the retraction of a paper in PNAS about airborne transmission:
This paper had two primary conclusions, neither of which were supported by the evidence presented. First, the authors concluded that mask mandates were the only factor that led to departures from the linear trend of case counts in Italy and New York City, and by implication, that no other non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., social distancing policies) were effective. Second, the authors concluded that airborne transmission is the major driver of COVID-19 spread. There were no measures of uncertainty reported.But the feel-good story of the day is the Los Angeles high school class that evaded coronavirus regulations by disguising a graduation celebration as a Black Lives Matter march.
P.S. Massachusetts cases were up a tenth of a percentage point today.
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